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BGonline.org Forums
Next Roll Safety vs. Series of Rolls
Posted By: jdg
Date: Thursday, 12 December 2013, at 3:26 p.m.
is Player 2
score: 3
pip: 9311 point match pip: 52
score: 0
is Player 1
XGID=-ECb-CBB-----------ccabbb-:2:-1:1:42:0:3:0:11:10 to play 42
1. XG Roller++ 7/1 eq: +0.162
Player:
Opponent:60.30% (G:2.23% B:0.01%)
39.70% (G:1.65% B:0.03%)2. XG Roller++ 6/4 6/2 eq: +0.048 (-0.114)
Player:
Opponent:55.43% (G:1.57% B:0.01%)
44.57% (G:3.71% B:0.07%)3. 1-ply 7/5 6/2 eq: -0.290 (-0.453)
Player:
Opponent:42.64% (G:1.95% B:0.01%)
57.36% (G:11.84% B:0.11%)4. 1-ply 6/4 5/1 eq: -0.361 (-0.523)
Player:
Opponent:39.60% (G:1.59% B:0.01%)
60.40% (G:10.84% B:0.10%)eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
Without using next two roll shot counts, looking at this position, I figured: 1) Dup the ones; 2) Let him bury some checkers if he misses; 3) Minimize shots this roll.
Not... even... close.
Any guidelines as to the number of extra shots to give now vs. safety later?
jdg
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