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Next Roll Safety vs. Series of Rolls

Posted By: Keene
Date: Thursday, 12 December 2013, at 3:49 p.m.

In Response To: Next Roll Safety vs. Series of Rolls (jdg)

I dont have guidelines as such on specific shot counts now vs later, however, the rule I tend to use is: Does it get easier to clean up later, or more difficult?

So, for your posted example, anything other than paying now just gets harder to resolve - you end up with more rolls that will double blot later, you also have the continuing problem of the blot not being at the back of the structure, so your 5s and 6s turn into bad numbers. The fact that you *may* be able to use the lower numbers to greater effect doesnt outweigh the pain of the bigger ones.

Unfortunately, these positions for me are not straight calculations, they are more pattern recognition, and judgement. Not saying I wont do a shot count, but ultimately it will be an 11/12/13 later vs 11/12/13/14/15 now, and I will ask myself does this save me enough future pain to be worth it? Most often, I find the answer to be relatively obvious, but thats not perhaps true of everyone (although I think its very likely to be).

Thinking on this some more, I suppose you could do some raw counting - i.e. 2 extra shots now gives me ~6% equity that I need to recover over the following sequence. If you are adept enough at that (and willing to scratch your head OTB) then there is a simple enough formula to figure it out. This would only apply to bearoffs though.

Keene

Messages In This Thread

• Next Roll Safety vs. Series of Rolls
  jdg -- Thursday, 12 December 2013, at 3:26 p.m.
  • Next Roll Safety vs. Series of Rolls
    Keene -- Thursday, 12 December 2013, at 3:49 p.m.