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61P-33C-31 — No Jacoby, No Beavers — XGR++ Eval

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Friday, 13 December 2013, at 3:17 p.m.

In Response To: 61P-33C-31 XG 1k RO (onur alan)

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 155 Unlimited Game pip: 160 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=----b-EBB---eD---a-eb---B-:0:0:1:31:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 31

1.	XG Roller++	24/23 24/21	eq: -0.2752
	Player: Opponent: 44.41% (G:7.82% B:0.27%) 55.59% (G:15.56% B:0.47%)
2.	XG Roller++	8/5 6/5	eq: -0.3067 (-0.0314)
	Player: Opponent: 43.44% (G:9.28% B:0.32%) 56.56% (G:16.69% B:0.69%)
3.	XG Roller++	24/23 6/3	eq: -0.3297 (-0.0545)
	Player: Opponent: 43.17% (G:8.42% B:0.29%) 56.83% (G:17.02% B:0.61%)
4.	XG Roller++	24/21 6/5	eq: -0.3303 (-0.0551)
	Player: Opponent: 43.68% (G:9.31% B:0.36%) 56.32% (G:18.47% B:0.83%)

Rollout by Taper_Mike 2013-Dec-11 eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658 61P-33C-31-n-tm.xgp n[U P31 e54 E55] "&e

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

61P-33C-31 — Unlimited Games

Bot	Seed	Equity	Nacbracs	Link
GnuBg 0.xx 2-ply Trunc	730545418	–311.256	n[U P26 e50 E66] /0.360t	Taper_Mike
XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR	68979641	–265	n[U E46 P48] "<=1	Onur Alan
XG 2.10 XGR++ Eval	[XGR++ seed]	–275.2	n[U P31 e54 E55] "&e	Taper_Mike (above)

Key: E = Each = W = Wild [24/21, 6/5], e = each [24/23, 6/3], P = Point [8/5, 6/5], U = Up [24/23, 24/21]

Explanation of nacbracs

Thanks for the rollout, Onur.

Even though the 1k rollout shows 100% confidence, I have learned to trust XGR++ more than a 1k rollout. If the rollout were extended to 5k, I’ll bet E = W = 24/21 6/5 would fall behind P = 8/5 6/5, and the result would begin to look more like the GnuBg trunc and the XGR++ eval.

The second roll play, 33C = 24/21(2) 8/5(2), is a small error. The next edition of the XG Opening Book will carry this rollout by David Rockwell: [B E9 C18 A42] "<62**10. Both B = 24/21(2) 13/10(2) and E = 24/21(2) 6/3(2) fare better than C.

Mike

Messages In This Thread

• Catchup #2 - 61P-33C-21?
  Stick -- Monday, 1 December 2008, at 12:56 p.m.
  • Catchup #2 - 61P-33C-21?
    Coolrey -- Monday, 1 December 2008, at 1:01 p.m.
  • Catchup #2 - 61P-33C-21?
    Matt Cohn-Geier -- Monday, 1 December 2008, at 2:02 p.m.
    • 61P-33C-31
      onur alan -- Wednesday, 11 December 2013, at 7:41 p.m.
      • 61P-33C-31
        Taper_Mike -- Thursday, 12 December 2013, at 1:25 a.m.
      • 61P-33C-31 XG 1k RO
        onur alan -- Friday, 13 December 2013, at 1:45 p.m.
        • 61P-33C-31 — No Jacoby, No Beavers — XGR++ Eval
          Taper_Mike -- Friday, 13 December 2013, at 3:17 p.m.
          • 61P-33C-31 — No Jacoby, No Beavers — XGR++ Eval
            onur alan -- Friday, 13 December 2013, at 4:08 p.m.
            • 61P-33C-31 — No Jacoby, No Beavers — XGR++ Eval
              Philippe Michel -- Friday, 13 December 2013, at 7:26 p.m.
              • XGR++ versus a 1k Rollout
                Taper_Mike -- Friday, 13 December 2013, at 11:23 p.m.
                • XGR++ versus a 1k Rollout
                  onur alan -- Saturday, 14 December 2013, at 8:42 a.m.
                  • XGR++ versus a 1k Rollout
                    Taper_Mike -- Saturday, 14 December 2013, at 11:02 a.m.
        • 61P-33C-31 XG 5k RO
          onur alan -- Saturday, 14 December 2013, at 11:27 a.m.
      • 61P-33C-31 GNU 7k RO
        Philippe Michel -- Friday, 13 December 2013, at 7:15 p.m.
  • Catchup #2 - 61P-33C-21?
    neilkaz -- Monday, 1 December 2008, at 7:56 p.m.
  • 61P-33C-21 — No Jacoby, No Beavers — 3-ply XG2 Rollout
    Taper_Mike -- Monday, 16 December 2013, at 7:15 a.m.