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Rollout Results Posted
Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Sunday, 15 December 2013, at 4:56 p.m.
In Response To: Doubles Aces (Paul Weaver)
Rollout results of six positions appear below.
Mike gave a good analysis of Position 1. Staying on the 16pt makes several of White's rolls play worse: 61 51 62 52 63. Making the best play, Blue loses a few more Gs (34% vs 29%), but picks up enough additional wins (17% vs 14%) and Gs (2.4% vs 1.6%) to compensate.
Position 1 is the original. In Position 2, I changed the race to see if 24/22 might be right.
Position 1.
White is NevzatDogan
score: 0
pip: 106Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 144
score: 0
Blue is peeverXGID=BBBCbDAcbdbbA:1:1:1:11:0:0:3:0:10 Blue to play 11
1. Rollout^{1} 8/7(2) 8/6 eq: 0.913
Player:
Opponent:17.04% (G:2.44% B:0.12%)
82.96% (G:34.24% B:0.40%)Conf.: ± 0.007 (0.920...0.907)  [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 42 seconds2. Rollout^{1} 16/13 8/7 eq: 0.936 (0.023)
Player:
Opponent:14.26% (G:1.55% B:0.06%)
85.74% (G:29.11% B:0.12%)Conf.: ± 0.006 (0.942...0.930)  [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 39 seconds^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollereXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Position 2.
White is NevzatDogan
score: 0
pip: 106Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 113
score: 0
Blue is peeverXGID=BBBBBAbBAcbdbbA:1:1:1:11:0:0:3:0:10 Blue to play 11
1. Rollout^{1} 24/22 7/5 eq: 0.558
Player:
Opponent:23.89% (G:2.34% B:0.05%)
76.11% (G:13.26% B:0.22%)Conf.: ± 0.006 (0.564...0.553)  [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 28 seconds2. Rollout^{1} 24/22 16/15 7/6 eq: 0.611 (0.053)
Player:
Opponent:21.47% (G:1.89% B:0.05%)
78.53% (G:12.62% B:0.17%)Conf.: ± 0.006 (0.617...0.605)  [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 27 seconds3. Rollout^{1} 16/13 7/6 eq: 0.614 (0.055)
Player:
Opponent:18.65% (G:1.81% B:0.03%)
81.35% (G:6.04% B:0.12%)Conf.: ± 0.005 (0.618...0.609)  [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 25 seconds4. Rollout^{1} 24/22 2/1(2) eq: 0.620 (0.062)
Player:
Opponent:22.19% (G:2.45% B:0.04%)
77.81% (G:16.14% B:0.30%)Conf.: ± 0.005 (0.626...0.615)  [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 26 seconds5. Rollout^{1} 7/3 eq: 0.632 (0.074)
Player:
Opponent:20.41% (G:3.20% B:0.05%)
79.59% (G:13.42% B:0.33%)Conf.: ± 0.005 (0.637...0.627)  [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 25 seconds^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollereXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
After seeing Position 2, I wondered if I could modify the race to find the marginal take/pass positions. I could not keep myself from wondering: What is the probability that Position 3 and Position 4 would arise in consecutive games? If these two positions had come up in consecutive games, who among us (other than Stick) would have made the correct take/pass decisions in both? Not I.
Position 3.
White is NevzatDogan
score: 0
pip: 106Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 103
score: 0
Blue is peeverXGID=BBBBBBAbAcbdbbA:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 White on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 74.24% (G:8.96% B:0.19%) 74.78% (G:10.57% B:0.19%) Opponent Winning Chances: 25.76% (G:1.61% B:0.04%) 25.22% (G:1.92% B:0.05%) Cubeless Equities +0.560 +1.167 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.774 (0.226) ±0.007 (+0.767..+0.781) Double/Take: +1.016 (+0.016) ±0.011 (+1.005..+1.026) Double/Pass: +1.000 Best Cube action: Double / Pass Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 99.8% Duration: 1 minute 56 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Position 4.
White is NevzatDogan
score: 0
pip: 106Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 102
score: 0
Blue is peeverXGID=BBBBBBAbAcbdbbA:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 White on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 74.12% (G:9.03% B:0.19%) 74.36% (G:10.22% B:0.18%) Opponent Winning Chances: 25.88% (G:1.77% B:0.05%) 25.64% (G:1.89% B:0.04%) Cubeless Equities +0.556 +1.144 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.762 (0.223) ±0.005 (+0.757..+0.768) Double/Take: +0.985 ±0.010 (+0.975..+0.996) Double/Pass: +1.000 (+0.015) Best Cube action: Double / Take Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 100.0% Take Decision confidence: 99.7% Duration: 1 minute 50 seconds eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
In Positions 5 and 6, I wanted to compare the importance of the 16pt/15pt decision to the importance of having a 5prime. Appears that having a 5prime is more important than the 16pt/15pt decision.
Position 5.
White is NevzatDogan
score: 0
pip: 106Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 142
score: 0
Blue is peeverXGID=BBBBAAbCAcbdbbA:1:1:1:11:0:0:3:0:10 Blue to play 11
1. Rollout^{1} 16/15 11/8 eq: 0.784
Player:
Opponent:19.28% (G:2.28% B:0.09%)
80.72% (G:26.22% B:0.20%)Conf.: ± 0.007 (0.792...0.777)  [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 00 second2. Rollout^{1} 11/9 8/6 eq: 0.819 (0.035)
Player:
Opponent:18.89% (G:2.81% B:0.14%)
81.11% (G:29.25% B:0.38%)Conf.: ± 0.007 (0.826...0.812)  [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 31 seconds^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollereXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Position 6.
White is NevzatDogan
score: 0
pip: 106Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaverpip: 143
score: 0
Blue is peeverXGID=BBBABAbCAcbdbbA:1:1:1:11:0:0:3:0:10 Blue to play 11
1. Rollout^{1} 11/7 eq: 0.763
Player:
Opponent:20.50% (G:2.74% B:0.12%)
79.50% (G:27.30% B:0.22%)Conf.: ± 0.007 (0.770...0.756)  [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 09 seconds2. Rollout^{1} 16/15 11/9 8/7 eq: 0.816 (0.053)
Player:
Opponent:19.23% (G:2.35% B:0.11%)
80.77% (G:28.90% B:0.31%)Conf.: ± 0.007 (0.823...0.808)  [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 10 seconds^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollereXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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