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Rollout Results Posted

Posted By: Paul Weaver
Date: Sunday, 15 December 2013, at 4:56 p.m.

In Response To: Doubles Aces (Paul Weaver)

Rollout results of six positions appear below.

Mike gave a good analysis of Position 1. Staying on the 16pt makes several of White's rolls play worse: 61 51 62 52 63. Making the best play, Blue loses a few more Gs (34% vs 29%), but picks up enough additional wins (17% vs 14%) and Gs (2.4% vs 1.6%) to compensate.

Position 1 is the original. In Position 2, I changed the race to see if 24/22 might be right.

Position 1.





White is NevzatDogan

score: 0
pip: 106
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 144
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=---B-BB-C---bD--Acbdbb--A-:1:1:1:11:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 11

1.xgRollout18/7(2) 8/6eq: -0.913
Player:
Opponent:		17.04% (G:2.44% B:0.12%)
82.96% (G:34.24% B:0.40%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.920...-0.907) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 42 seconds
2.playedRollout116/13 8/7eq: -0.936 (-0.023)
Player:
Opponent:		14.26% (G:1.55% B:0.06%)
85.74% (G:29.11% B:0.12%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.942...-0.930) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 39 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 2.





White is NevzatDogan

score: 0
pip: 106
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 113
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=--BBBBBA----bB--Acbdbb--A-:1:1:1:11:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 11

1.xgRollout124/22 7/5eq: -0.558
Player:
Opponent:		23.89% (G:2.34% B:0.05%)
76.11% (G:13.26% B:0.22%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.564...-0.553) - [100.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 28 seconds
2.Rollout124/22 16/15 7/6eq: -0.611 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:		21.47% (G:1.89% B:0.05%)
78.53% (G:12.62% B:0.17%)		Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.617...-0.605) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 27 seconds
3.Rollout116/13 7/6eq: -0.614 (-0.055)
Player:
Opponent:		18.65% (G:1.81% B:0.03%)
81.35% (G:6.04% B:0.12%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.618...-0.609) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 25 seconds
4.Rollout124/22 2/1(2)eq: -0.620 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:		22.19% (G:2.45% B:0.04%)
77.81% (G:16.14% B:0.30%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.626...-0.615) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 26 seconds
5.Rollout17/3eq: -0.632 (-0.074)
Player:
Opponent:		20.41% (G:3.20% B:0.05%)
79.59% (G:13.42% B:0.33%)		Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.637...-0.627) - [0.0%]
Duration: 1 minute 25 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

After seeing Position 2, I wondered if I could modify the race to find the marginal take/pass positions. I could not keep myself from wondering: What is the probability that Position 3 and Position 4 would arise in consecutive games? If these two positions had come up in consecutive games, who among us (other than Stick) would have made the correct take/pass decisions in both? Not I.

Position 3.





White is NevzatDogan

score: 0
pip: 106
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 103
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=--BBBBBB---Ab---AcbdbbA---:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.24% (G:8.96% B:0.19%) 74.78% (G:10.57% B:0.19%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.76% (G:1.61% B:0.04%) 25.22% (G:1.92% B:0.05%)
Cubeless Equities +0.560 +1.167
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.774 (-0.226)±0.007 (+0.767..+0.781)
Double/Take:+1.016 (+0.016)±0.011 (+1.005..+1.026)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:99.8%
Duration: 1 minute 56 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 4.





White is NevzatDogan

score: 0
pip: 106
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 102
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=--BBBBBB--A-b---AcbdbbA---:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
White on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.12% (G:9.03% B:0.19%) 74.36% (G:10.22% B:0.18%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.88% (G:1.77% B:0.05%) 25.64% (G:1.89% B:0.04%)
Cubeless Equities +0.556 +1.144
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.762 (-0.223)±0.005 (+0.757..+0.768)
Double/Take:+0.985±0.010 (+0.975..+0.996)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.015)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:99.7%
Duration: 1 minute 50 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

In Positions 5 and 6, I wanted to compare the importance of the 16pt/15pt decision to the importance of having a 5-prime. Appears that having a 5-prime is more important than the 16pt/15pt decision.

Position 5.





White is NevzatDogan

score: 0
pip: 106
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 142
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=----BBBBA--AbC--Acbdbb--A-:1:1:1:11:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 11

1.xgRollout116/15 11/8eq: -0.784
Player:
Opponent:		19.28% (G:2.28% B:0.09%)
80.72% (G:26.22% B:0.20%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.792...-0.777) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 00 second
2.Rollout111/9 8/6eq: -0.819 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:		18.89% (G:2.81% B:0.14%)
81.11% (G:29.25% B:0.38%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.826...-0.812) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 31 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Position 6.





White is NevzatDogan

score: 0
pip: 106
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 143
score: 0

Blue is peever
XGID=----BBBAB--AbC--Acbdbb--A-:1:1:1:11:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 11

1.xgRollout111/7eq: -0.763
Player:
Opponent:		20.50% (G:2.74% B:0.12%)
79.50% (G:27.30% B:0.22%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.770...-0.756) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 09 seconds
2.Rollout116/15 11/9 8/7eq: -0.816 (-0.053)
Player:
Opponent:		19.23% (G:2.35% B:0.11%)
80.77% (G:28.90% B:0.31%)		Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.823...-0.808) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 10 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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