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DMP: Tap that ass?

Posted By: mamabear
Date: Sunday, 22 December 2013, at 12:43 p.m.

In Response To: DMP: Tap that ass? (Taper_Mike)

You seem to have given it the right amount of thought, but not so much that you drowned yourself in the numbers. I agree with your not trying too hard to figure out how often Blue hits back from the bar on his second try, or go even further and note that he has some micro-scrap of equity even if he gets closed out. I also agree with your conclusion, and like the hitting play.

The obstacle here, at least for me, is to get past the usual aversion to leaving this many shots when the opponent is this close to having a closed board. For money, this hit would be way too risky because of the unfavorable games won vs. gammons lost tradeoff. I think I would have hit OtB after tossing a few numbers around the same way you did, but on a bad day I might have been spooked by that huge board and played safe for the roll.

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