BGonline.org Forums

Extreme Example of Problem Using Double/No Double Rollouts

Posted By: Neil Robins
Date: Thursday, 26 December 2013, at 3:53 a.m.

In Response To: Thank You Very Much!! (Neil Robins)

The first rollout here is the genuine article with XG correctly doubling after either play.

The second rollout is using the rollouut for double and no double setting. The results there from either move come from it indeed doubling. The difference is that the play is made entirly on the assumption that the cube wasn't sent. In this case that makes such a huge difference that it actually shows what is the best play to be a whopper.

 White is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 103 7 point match pip: 119 score: 5 Blue is Player 1
Blue to play 62
1.Rollout113/5eq: -0.918
 Player:Opponent: 29.19% (G:6.26% B:0.58%)70.81% (G:13.95% B:0.58%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.926...-0.911) - [100.0%]Duration: 1 minute 39 seconds
2.Rollout122/16 4/2eq: -0.956 (-0.038)
 Player:Opponent: 39.71% (G:15.33% B:0.86%)60.29% (G:30.32% B:0.68%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.964...-0.948) - [0.0%]Duration: 1 minute 38 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 71284
First 2 moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Remaining moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

 White is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 103 7 point match pip: 119 score: 5 Blue is Player 1
Blue to play 62
1.Rollout122/16 4/2eq: -0.811
 Player:Opponent: 39.03% (G:11.79% B:0.78%)60.97% (G:24.96% B:0.51%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.818...-0.803) - [100.0%]Duration: 4 minutes 04 seconds
2.Rollout113/5eq: -0.917 (-0.106)
 Player:Opponent: 29.32% (G:6.43% B:0.69%)70.68% (G:14.11% B:0.57%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.924...-0.909) - [0.0%]Duration: 3 minutes 22 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Rolled for both No double and Double
Dice Seed: 71284
First 2 moves: 4-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller+
Remaining moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Note: XGR++ also uses roll for double and no double. Compare:

 White is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 103 7 point match pip: 119 score: 5 Blue is Player 1
Blue to play 62
1.4-ply13/5eq: -0.873
 Player:Opponent: 29.61% (G:6.98% B:0.31%)70.39% (G:13.31% B:0.43%)
2.4-ply22/16 4/2eq: -0.899 (-0.026)
 Player:Opponent: 39.63% (G:15.39% B:0.58%)60.37% (G:28.61% B:0.51%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

 White is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 103 7 point match pip: 119 score: 5 Blue is Player 1
Blue to play 62
1.XG Roller++22/16 4/2eq: -0.787
 Player:Opponent: 38.86% (G:11.57% B:0.44%)61.14% (G:23.68% B:0.43%)
2.XG Roller++13/5eq: -0.922 (-0.135)
 Player:Opponent: 28.56% (G:6.32% B:0.33%)71.44% (G:12.85% B:0.51%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Rockwell-Kazaross

Post Response

Subject:
Message: