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Correction — Rollouts DO have same top two plays

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Sunday, 29 December 2013, at 6:39 p.m.

In Response To: 51S-54R-31P-63R-41 — No Jacoby, No Beavers — 3-ply XG2 Rollout (Taper_Mike)





White is Teknikadam

score: 0
pip: 149
Unlimited Game
pip: 157
score: 0

Blue is bukalemune
XGID=-----BD-C-b-eD---c-e---AA-:0:0:1:41:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 41

1.Rollout123/22 8/4eq: -0.1684
Player:
Opponent:		44.53% (G:12.55% B:0.37%)
55.47% (G:9.95% B:0.36%)		Conf.: ±0.0090 (-0.1774...-0.1594) - [79.4%]
Duration: 37 minutes 08 seconds
2.Rollout123/22 13/9eq: -0.1749 (-0.0065)
Player:
Opponent:		44.59% (G:11.92% B:0.36%)
55.41% (G:9.58% B:0.34%)		Conf.: ±0.0091 (-0.1840...-0.1658) - [14.7%]
Duration: 33 minutes 53 seconds
3.Rollout113/9 6/5eq: -0.1789 (-0.0105)
Player:
Opponent:		44.28% (G:11.26% B:0.31%)
55.72% (G:8.78% B:0.33%)		Conf.: ±0.0089 (-0.1878...-0.1699) - [3.3%]
Duration: 38 minutes 11 seconds
4.Rollout18/4 6/5eq: -0.1797 (-0.0113)
Player:
Opponent:		44.25% (G:11.68% B:0.35%)
55.75% (G:9.01% B:0.32%)		Conf.: ±0.0090 (-0.1887...-0.1706) - [2.5%]
Duration: 33 minutes 40 seconds
5.Rollout113/9 8/7eq: -0.2001 (-0.0317)
Player:
Opponent:		43.96% (G:11.15% B:0.32%)
56.04% (G:8.98% B:0.35%)		Conf.: ±0.0080 (-0.2081...-0.1921) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 59 seconds
6.Rollout124/20 6/5eq: -0.2154 (-0.0470)
Player:
Opponent:		43.49% (G:9.62% B:0.30%)
56.51% (G:8.61% B:0.30%)		Conf.: ±0.0088 (-0.2242...-0.2066) - [0.0%]
Duration: 34 minutes 12 seconds
7.Rollout124/20 8/7eq: -0.2219 (-0.0535)
Player:
Opponent:		43.16% (G:9.75% B:0.30%)
56.84% (G:8.60% B:0.29%)		Conf.: ±0.0091 (-0.2311...-0.2128) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 04 seconds
 
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 77974699
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Original Rollout by Onur Alan
2013-Dec-17
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
51S-54R-31P-63R-41-n-oa.xgp
n[C S6 N10 A11 d31 E49 B52] "<=2

Rollout Extended by Taper_Mike
2013-Dec-29
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
51S-54R-31P-63R-41-n-oatm.xgp
n[C S6 N10 A11 d32 E47 B54] "<=2

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

51S-54R-31P-63R-41 — Unlimited Games
Bot Seed Equity Nacbracs Link
GnuBg 1.02 2-ply trunc 730090925 –142.969 n[S C4 A15 N16 d28 A47 D54 E63 O65 B67] '/0.360t Taper_Mike
XG 2.10 XGR++ Eval [XGR++ seed] –144.9 n[S C8 A15 N17 d27 A45 D53 E61 a61 B66 O67] "&e Taper_Mike
XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR 25957710 –166.8 n[S C3 A15 N18 d29 A39 D57 E60] "<=62*31*15 7 5 Taper_Mike
XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR 77974699 –168.4 n[C S6 N10 A11 d32 E47 B54] "<=2 Onur Alan/Taper_Mike (above)

Key: A = Attack [8/4, 6/5], a = attack [8/3], A = Attack [8/4, 5/4], B = Both [24/20, 8/7], C = Cross [23/22, 8/4],
D = Down [13/8], d = down [13/9, 8/7], E = Each [24/20, 6/5], N = Near [13/9, 6/5], O = Outer [8/7, 8/4],
S = Split = Z = Reverse split [23/22, 13/9]

Explanation of nacbracs

Correction:
Both rollouts have S and C on top.

I added a few trials to the 2k rollout Onur Alan sent me, just enough to round it out at an even 2k. The result above is very close to the version Onur posted. Putting the new data in my database I found that I had made a mistake posting the original. Going by that mistaken data, I said in my last post that Onur’s rollout has s = 24/23 13/9 as the second-best play. That was wrong.

Onur’s rollout has the same top two plays as the 62k rollout I posted. S = 23/22 13/9 and C = 23/22 8/4 come out on top in both, however, S leads in one, while C leads in the other.

Mike

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