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Estimate, Guesstimate, or WAG

Posted By: Daniel Murphy
Date: Thursday, 23 January 2014, at 2:20 p.m.

In Response To: Estimate, Guesstimate, or WAG (neilkaz)

Neil's position:

White	34
Blue	57
Position ID: 3wAAgLbdHQAAAA Match ID: cAlAAAAAAAAE

• Blue on roll wins 61.2% cubeless.
• Money game cube action: no double, no redouble.

---

This is a borderline redouble:

White	34
Blue	42
Position ID: 3wAAgLZtAwAAAA Match ID: UQkAAAAAAAAE

Cube decision
Rollout cubeless equity		+0.4390
Cubeful equities:
1.	Double, take	+0.7514
2.	Double, pass	+1.0000	+0.2486
3.	No double	+0.7428	-0.0086
Proper cube action:		Redouble, take
Rollout details
Win W g W bg Lose L g L bg Cubeless Cubeful Player One owns 2-cube 0.7195 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2805 0.0000 0.0000 +0.4390 +0.7428 Standard error 0.0004 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0004 0.0000 0.0000 0.0009 0.0021 Player gnubg owns 4-cube 0.7241 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.2759 0.0000 0.0000 +0.8965 +0.7514 Standard error 0.0005 0.0000 0.0000 - 0.0005 0.0000 0.0000 0.0019 0.0026
Full cubeful rollout with var.redn.
1296 games, Mersenne Twister dice gen. with seed 734855644 and quasi-random dice
Play: supremo 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]
keep the first 0 0-ply moves and up to 16 more moves within equity 0.32
Skip pruning for 1-ply moves.
Cube: 2-ply cubeful prune [world class]

Messages In This Thread

• Estimate, Guesstimate, or WAG
  Stick -- Wednesday, 22 January 2014, at 12:43 a.m.
  • Estimate, Guesstimate, or WAG
    David Rennie -- Wednesday, 22 January 2014, at 12:58 a.m.
    • Estimate, Guesstimate, or WAG
      Bob Koca -- Wednesday, 22 January 2014, at 1:11 a.m.
  • Estimate, Guesstimate, or WAG
    MishyPoo -- Wednesday, 22 January 2014, at 1:28 a.m.
  • Estimate, Guesstimate, or WAG
    John O'Hagan -- Wednesday, 22 January 2014, at 1:59 a.m.
    • Estimate, Guesstimate, or WAG
      neilkaz -- Wednesday, 22 January 2014, at 4:09 p.m.
      • Estimate, Guesstimate, or WAG
        Daniel Murphy -- Thursday, 23 January 2014, at 2:20 p.m.
  • Estimate, Guesstimate, or WAG
    Keene -- Wednesday, 22 January 2014, at 9:32 p.m.
  • Estimate, Guesstimate, or WAG
    lenny -- Thursday, 23 January 2014, at 12:19 a.m.
  • Info
    Stick -- Thursday, 23 January 2014, at 5:17 a.m.