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Advanced Backgammon #15 -- Rollouts

Posted By: Igor
Date: Wednesday, 29 January 2014, at 7:07 p.m.

In Response To: Advanced Backgammon #15 (Igor)

Robertie suggests slotting with 13/10 6/4 and he is right. We are behind in the race and white has only one checker back. Our game plan is therefore to attack. In order for our attack to be successful we need to have plenty of ammunition AND to diversify to make the most efficient use of our checkers. Bringing two down addresses the ammunition issue, but it's better to bring just one down and make more efficient use of the horrible stack of three spares on our 6pt. Now is a good opportunity for such a bold play since white has no board and a blot in the home board.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 135
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 150
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---BE-B---cD---dbd-B-a--:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 32

1.Rollout113/10 6/4eq: +0.031
Player:
Opponent:
50.08% (G:12.71% B:0.34%)
49.92% (G:9.59% B:0.34%)
Conf.: 0.005 (+0.026...+0.036) - [100.0%]
Duration: 50 minutes 13 seconds
2.Rollout113/11 13/10eq: +0.017 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
49.48% (G:12.43% B:0.31%)
50.52% (G:8.74% B:0.33%)
Conf.: 0.005 (+0.013...+0.022) - [0.0%]
Duration: 45 minutes 02 seconds
3.Rollout213/8eq: -0.047 (-0.078)
Player:
Opponent:
47.75% (G:10.62% B:0.25%)
52.25% (G:6.98% B:0.27%)
Conf.: 0.012 (-0.060...-0.035) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 43 seconds
4.Rollout213/11 6/3eq: -0.049 (-0.080)
Player:
Opponent:
48.29% (G:11.63% B:0.32%)
51.71% (G:10.13% B:0.34%)
Conf.: 0.012 (-0.061...-0.038) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 14 seconds
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 90614152
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 90614152
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

If at least one of the factors (a) stack of three spares or (b) blot in white's home board is removed from the equation, then slotting becomes an overplay.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 135
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 152
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---BD-C---cD---dbd-B-a--:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 32

1.Rollout113/11 13/10eq: +0.101
Player:
Opponent:
51.74% (G:12.70% B:0.36%)
48.26% (G:8.20% B:0.29%)
Conf.: 0.009 (+0.093...+0.110) - [100.0%]
Duration: 11 minutes 58 seconds
2.Rollout113/10 6/4eq: +0.067 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:
51.18% (G:12.41% B:0.41%)
48.82% (G:9.97% B:0.29%)
Conf.: 0.010 (+0.057...+0.077) - [0.0%]
Duration: 12 minutes 57 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 42064853
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 131
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 150
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---BE-B---cD---dbc-B-b--:0:0:1:32:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 32

1.Rollout113/11 13/10eq: -0.068
Player:
Opponent:
47.60% (G:10.75% B:0.28%)
52.40% (G:9.33% B:0.34%)
Conf.: 0.004 (-0.072...-0.064) - [100.0%]
Duration: 42 minutes 15 seconds
2.Rollout113/10 6/4eq: -0.081 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:
47.87% (G:11.08% B:0.32%)
52.13% (G:11.23% B:0.37%)
Conf.: 0.005 (-0.086...-0.075) - [0.0%]
Duration: 43 minutes 43 seconds
3.Rollout213/8eq: -0.120 (-0.052)
Player:
Opponent:
45.95% (G:9.59% B:0.23%)
54.05% (G:7.60% B:0.24%)
Conf.: 0.012 (-0.132...-0.108) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 20 seconds
1 10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 50448675
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 50448675
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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