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Cool cubes

Posted By: Mr Majestyk
Date: Monday, 10 February 2014, at 8:39 p.m.

In Response To: Cool cubes (Keene)

Assume for the moment a 1/3 chance of a gammon. By altering the position to reflect a blitz, your estimated gammon chance in the original position would be 15/36*1/3% = 13.7%.

Example 1

 White is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 124 7 point match pip: 120 score: 1 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-B-DB-BaC-c----bBaabbb--:0:0:1:00:1:2:0:7:3
Blue on roll, cube action?
 Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 68.58% (G:31.93% B:1.40%) 68.75% (G:32.20% B:1.45%) Opponent Winning Chances: 31.42% (G:8.47% B:0.31%) 31.25% (G:8.47% B:0.33%) Cubeless Equities +0.646 +1.408 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.887 (-0.113) Double/Take: +1.240 (+0.240) Double/Pass: +1.000 Best Cube action: Double / Pass

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

With the 5pt made (shown below) the chances of a gammon are higher compared to the starting position. Hence, if you can estimate your chances here, then you should be able to estimate the gammons in example 3.

Example 2

 White is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 132 7 point match pip: 129 score: 1 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-b---CD-C-C-c----bBaabbb--:0:0:1:00:1:2:0:7:3
Blue on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Example 3

 White is Player 2 score: 2 pip: 124 7 point match pip: 129 score: 1 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a---CD-CaC-c----bBaabbb--:0:0:1:00:1:2:0:7:3
Blue on roll, cube action?

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

NBM

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