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Cool cubes
Posted By: Mr Majestyk
Date: Monday, 10 February 2014, at 8:39 p.m.
In Response To: Cool cubes (Keene)
Assume for the moment a 1/3 chance of a gammon. By altering the position to reflect a blitz, your estimated gammon chance in the original position would be 15/36*1/3% = 13.7%.
Example 1
White is Player 2
score: 2
pip: 1247 point match pip: 120
score: 1
Blue is Player 1XGID=aBDBBaCcbBaabbb:0:0:1:00:1:2:0:7:3 Blue on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in XG Roller++ No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 68.58% (G:31.93% B:1.40%) 68.75% (G:32.20% B:1.45%) Opponent Winning Chances: 31.42% (G:8.47% B:0.31%) 31.25% (G:8.47% B:0.33%) Cubeless Equities +0.646 +1.408 Cubeful Equities No double: +0.887 (0.113) Double/Take: +1.240 (+0.240) Double/Pass: +1.000 Best Cube action: Double / Pass eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
With the 5pt made (shown below) the chances of a gammon are higher compared to the starting position. Hence, if you can estimate your chances here, then you should be able to estimate the gammons in example 3.
Example 2
White is Player 2
score: 2
pip: 1327 point match pip: 129
score: 1
Blue is Player 1XGID=bCDCCcbBaabbb:0:0:1:00:1:2:0:7:3 Blue on roll, cube action?
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Example 3
White is Player 2
score: 2
pip: 1247 point match pip: 129
score: 1
Blue is Player 1XGID=aCDCaCcbBaabbb:0:0:1:00:1:2:0:7:3 Blue on roll, cube action? eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
NBM

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