Assume for the moment a 1/3 chance of a gammon. By altering the position to reflect a blitz, your estimated gammon chance in the original position would be 15/36*1/3% = 13.7%.
Example 1
         
 
          
 | | White is Player 2
score: 2
pip: 124 | | 7 point match | pip: 120
score: 1
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=-a-B-DB-BaC-c----bBaabbb--:0:0:1:00:1:2:0:7:3 | | Blue on roll, cube action? | | | Analyzed in XG Roller++ | No double | Double/Take | | Player Winning Chances: | 68.58% (G:31.93% B:1.40%) | 68.75% (G:32.20% B:1.45%) | | Opponent Winning Chances: | 31.42% (G:8.47% B:0.31%) | 31.25% (G:8.47% B:0.33%) | | Cubeless Equities | +0.646 | +1.408 | | Cubeful Equities | | No double: | +0.887 (-0.113) | | | Double/Take: | +1.240 (+0.240) | | | Double/Pass: | +1.000 | | | | Best Cube action: Double / Pass |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
With the 5pt made (shown below) the chances of a gammon are higher compared to the starting position. Hence, if you can estimate your chances here, then you should be able to estimate the gammons in example 3.
Example 2
  
| | White is Player 2
score: 2
pip: 132 | | 7 point match | pip: 129
score: 1
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-b---CD-C-C-c----bBaabbb--:0:0:1:00:1:2:0:7:3 |
| Blue on roll, cube action? |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Example 3
| | White is Player 2
score: 2
pip: 124 | | 7 point match | pip: 129
score: 1
Blue is Player 1 |
| | XGID=-a---CD-CaC-c----bBaabbb--:0:0:1:00:1:2:0:7:3 | | Blue on roll, cube action? | | |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
NBM