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Cool cubes - some comments

Posted By: svilo
Date: Tuesday, 11 February 2014, at 9:19 p.m.

In Response To: Cool cubes (svilo)





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 113
7 point match
pip: 120
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---B-DB-BaC-d----bBaabbb--:0:0:1:D:1:2:0:7:3
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in XG Roller No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 57.94% (G:12.95% B:0.23%) 58.03% (G:13.03% B:0.23%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 42.06% (G:3.31% B:0.10%) 41.97% (G:3.38% B:0.11%)
Cubeless Equities +0.268 +0.613
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.408
Double/Take:+0.320 (-0.089)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.592)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 11.5%

Position
The RPT principle (race position threats) is a vague method to evaluate cube positions.
Race - even
Position - worse
threats - positive
(no double)
But
If we take away the dynamics of the position and envisage only the skeleton - this is a barpoint holding game with a bad timing for the anchor. Probably he will break the anchor before getting the shot. But in this specific position the bar point holder has a few more assets:
1. The ace shot. Plus the "blind man with the gun" 4 shots (63 and 54). Total 15 shots.
2. The two home eblots (enemy blots)
3. The score - the doubler is behind in the match.
4. The responsibility factor - the taker may get scared and pass. If he does it 1 in 9 times it is enough.
5. The PR factor - I the doubler had a higher PR - to increase volatility I double. Increased volatlity favors the weaker player.
6. The difficulty to play out. He will have more and more difficult decisions and will err more.
I guess such a "Coolrey" double would be more efficient OtB, unnder the clock ticking.

I doubled, I do not remember what happened, but in spite of XG evaluation because of above logic, I would double such positions again.

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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