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Advanced Backgammon #51 -- Rollouts

Posted By: Igor
Date: Wednesday, 12 February 2014, at 9:12 p.m.

In Response To: Advanced Backgammon #51 (Igor)

Robertie says white should pass, but this is a huge take. Blue has just about enough to double.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 174
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 155
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aa-aBBC-B---dC---cAbc--B--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.24% (G:27.93% B:2.01%) 65.65% (G:28.75% B:2.01%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.76% (G:8.58% B:0.46%) 34.35% (G:8.58% B:0.46%)
Cubeless Equities +0.514 +1.060
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.728 (-0.068)±0.012 (+0.715..+0.740)
Double/Take:+0.795±0.017 (+0.778..+0.813)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.205)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 9336923
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 15 minutes 31 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Adding 10th checker in the zone for blue is still a comfortable take for white.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 174
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 150
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aa-aBBC-C---dB---cAbc--B--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 65.73% (G:29.58% B:2.18%) 65.74% (G:31.95% B:2.25%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 34.27% (G:8.13% B:0.44%) 34.26% (G:8.64% B:0.49%)
Cubeless Equities +0.546 +1.131
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.753 (-0.105)±0.015 (+0.738..+0.768)
Double/Take:+0.858±0.023 (+0.836..+0.881)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.142)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 9336923
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 7 minutes 16 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Give white an ace point anchor and it's barely a double.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 176
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 155
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=ab--BBC-B---dC---cAbc--B--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.41% (G:26.35% B:2.44%) 66.27% (G:27.03% B:2.64%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.59% (G:7.79% B:0.38%) 33.73% (G:8.01% B:0.41%)
Cubeless Equities +0.534 +1.076
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.797 (-0.011)±0.004 (+0.793..+0.801)
Double/Take:+0.808±0.005 (+0.803..+0.813)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.192)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
25920 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 9336923
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 hours 14 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Finally, move one blue back checker to 18pt and it becomes a pass.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 174
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 150
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aa-aBBC-B---dC---cBbc--A--:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 69.29% (G:28.62% B:2.02%) 69.49% (G:32.71% B:2.09%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 30.71% (G:6.36% B:0.29%) 30.51% (G:6.77% B:0.28%)
Cubeless Equities +0.626 +1.335
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.865 (-0.135)±0.013 (+0.852..+0.878)
Double/Take:+1.110 (+0.110)±0.020 (+1.090..+1.130)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 96354314
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 6 minutes 56 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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