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BGO vs. BGO OLM
Posted By: Bob Koca
Date: Saturday, 15 February 2014, at 6:11 a.m.
In Response To: BGO vs. BGO OLM (David Rennie)
It is the same variance reduction that I used in a rollout. The bot has an estimate of how good each roll is and adjusts accordingly. For example the bot may feel that 1 roll increases our win chance by 5%, another decreases by 5% and all others keep it the same (must have an average of no change). If we get that good roll we are counted as having +5% luck. Suppose we win the match and had +45% luck. We outplayed opponents since we started with 50% MWC, used 45% to get to 95% and greater skill to get to 100%.
The big advantage of this over PR comparison is that the adjustments are entirely independent of what we actually play so we just make the play we think gives best chance to win the match.
http://www.bkgm.com/articles/GOL/Feb00/var.htm is an excellent article on variance reduction by David Montgomery.

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