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Quality of spare

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Saturday, 15 March 2014, at 4:46 a.m.

In Response To: Comparison to 32S 11? (Bob Koca)

 White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 162 Unlimited GameJacoby Beaver pip: 167 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--a-E-C---dEa--c-e----B-:0:0:1:11:0:0:3:0:10

32S-11 [P I40] "&e
(Make 4pt to keep 6pt spare)

 White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 162 Unlimited GameJacoby Beaver pip: 165 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a--a-F-B---dEa--c-e----B-:0:0:1:11:0:0:3:0:10

32S-11 variant [I P18] "&e
(Hitting loose can keep 6pt spare)

A major factor is the quality of the spare(s) you can keep. In the case of 32S-11 (upper left), P (Pointing on the 4pt) is best because that is the way Blue can retain a 6pt spare.

In the variant position in the upper right, Blue starts with an extra 6pt spare (taken from his 8pt). Here, he should hit loose because it is possible to keep a 6pt spare.

By the same token, consider the pair of positions below. They are identical to each other except for Blue's roll. On the left, with 21, he should play P (Point on the 4pt) in order to retain a 6pt spare instead of an 8pt spare.

In the lower right is the OLM position. With 41, Blue should hit loose because it is possible to keep a 6pt spare.

In the caption below each diagram, examine the portion of the nacbracs isolated in red. [For purposes of this analysis, I'm trusting these XG++ evaluations.] P (Pointing on the 4pt) is better in the two lefthand positions. Hitting loose is better than P in the two righthand positions. The swing is substantial within each pair: above it is .058, below it is .069.

........Nactation tutorial
........Explanation of nacbracs

Nack

 White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 146 Unlimited GameJacoby Beaver pip: 154 score: 0 Blue is Player 1

64S-61P-52U-51H-44P-21 [P A11] "&e
(Make 4pt to keep 6pt spare)

 White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 146 Unlimited GameJacoby Beaver pip: 154 score: 0 Blue is Player 1

64S-61P-52U-51H-44P-41 [A P58] "&e
(Hitting loose can keep 6pt spare)

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