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OLM 20140313B Adjusting my BG vision

Posted By: Jason Lee
Date: Saturday, 15 March 2014, at 7:52 a.m.

In Response To: OLM 20140313B ROLLOUT (Jason Lee)

I would have gotten this one wrong. I've run into this type of decision before with a 41 and a slotted 5 point, and I tend to make the 4 point without giving 6/5 enough consideration. I'm trying to figure out what the most important feature of the resulting positions are, when trying to contrast the resulting positions after the two candidate plays:





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 146
9 point match
pip: 154
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---aaADBC---cC---c-eb---B-:0:0:1:41:1:2:0:9:10
Blue to play 41

1.playedRollout18/4* 6/5eq: +0.214
Player:
Opponent:
53.88% (G:16.68% B:0.73%)
46.12% (G:15.77% B:1.11%)
Conf.: 0.013 (+0.202...+0.227) - [100.0%]
Duration: 48 minutes 13 seconds
2.Rollout18/4* 5/4eq: +0.135 (-0.079)
Player:
Opponent:
51.97% (G:16.14% B:0.64%)
48.03% (G:15.29% B:0.85%)
Conf.: 0.011 (+0.124...+0.146) - [0.0%]
Duration: 41 minutes 13 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 68595750
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 150
9 point match
pip: 149
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a--aB-DBB---cC---c-eb---B-:0:0:-1:00:1:2:0:9:10

After playing 8/4* 5/4





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 150
9 point match
pip: 149
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=a--aABCBB---cC---c-eb---B-:0:0:-1:00:1:2:0:9:10

After playing 8/4* 6/5

I see the upside of 6/5 -- when we are missed, the resulting position is really strong. It seems my problem is thinking too much about the downside of the 15 hitting numbers, and weighing that downside more than the upside of making the 5 point, even in those 15 times we get hit.

So then I made a different position from the original by escaping one of Blue's checkers:





White is Player 2

score: 2
pip: 146
9 point match
pip: 143
score: 1

Blue is Player 1
XGID=---aaADBC---cD---c-eb---A-:0:0:1:41:1:2:0:9:10
Blue to play 41

1.xgXG Roller++8/4* 5/4eq: +0.474
Player:
Opponent:
60.51% (G:14.13% B:0.42%)
39.49% (G:8.60% B:0.26%)
2.XG Roller++8/4* 6/5eq: +0.351 (-0.123)
Player:
Opponent:
57.53% (G:15.19% B:0.58%)
42.47% (G:11.88% B:0.44%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

Hot mama, what a difference! Sure, I know what with one checker back instead of two, there is a significantly higher cost to getting hit.

Not sure what else to say other than my backgammon vision is in real need of an adjustment here.

JLee

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