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OLM 20140316A -Cubing For Dummies-lol

Posted By: Casper Van der Tak
Date: Monday, 17 March 2014, at 5:50 a.m.

In Response To: OLM 20140316A -Cubing For Dummies-lol (Seth)

One way to look at it is by considering Daniel's post. with a bit or rounding (we should be looking at sequences, so our roll and the response, but it is easier to collapse this into "out of 36", and using 30% is almost 11 out of 36), we'd get 14 out of 36 cases where we don't like having doubled, 11 out of 36 where we'd double next turn and would get a take, and 11 out of 36 where we lose our market.

Let's say our average market loss is going to be by 0.1 point (which I think is too much), but not doubling we'd lose 1.1 points (11*0.1). However, in the 14 cases where we double and don't do anything, we hate doubling (we'd become underdogs to win the game and would have given the cube away), losing maybe 0.5 per case or so. So the gain from not doubling would be some 14*0.5 - 11*0.1 = 5.9 out of 36, or over 0.15 points. And then I believe I was generous to cubing.

Don't offer cubes with low game winning chances and high gammon chances when ahead in the match, especially not when there would be overage on recubed gammon wins...

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