O.K., I looked into this a bit more. First off, as Neil suggested, the cube location matters a lot. Shuffling White's checkers around has much less of an effect than the cube location.
If Blue owns the cube then things get more interesting. Here's the original position:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 70 | Unlimited Game | pip: 79 score: 0
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=-CBBBBB-----b-----Baccacb-:1:1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10 |
Blue to play 11 |
1. | XG Roller++ | 18/17 18/15 | eq: -0.078 |
| Player: Opponent: | 40.17% (G:8.78% B:0.40%) 59.83% (G:5.94% B:0.09%) | |
|
2. | XG Roller++ | 18/16(2) | eq: -0.109 (-0.031) |
| Player: Opponent: | 39.47% (G:0.84% B:0.02%) 60.53% (G:0.24% B:0.00%) | |
|
3. | XG Roller++ | 6/5 6/3 | eq: -0.120 (-0.042) |
| Player: Opponent: | 38.14% (G:0.92% B:0.01%) 61.86% (G:1.14% B:0.01%) | |
|
4. | XG Roller++ | 6/2 | eq: -0.126 (-0.048) |
| Player: Opponent: | 38.05% (G:0.88% B:0.01%) 61.95% (G:1.46% B:0.02%) | |
|
5. | XG Roller++ | 6/4(2) | eq: -0.128 (-0.050) |
| Player: Opponent: | 37.89% (G:0.77% B:0.01%) 62.11% (G:1.01% B:0.01%) | |
|
6. | XG Roller++ | 18/17(2) 6/4 | eq: -0.137 (-0.059) |
| Player: Opponent: | 37.54% (G:0.70% B:0.01%) 62.46% (G:0.81% B:0.01%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
With blots on 6pt and 4pt:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 68 | Unlimited Game | pip: 79 score: 0
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=-CBBBBB-----b-----Bacaccb-:1:1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10 |
Blue to play 11 |
1. | XG Roller++ | 18/16(2) | eq: -0.129 |
| Player: Opponent: | 38.57% (G:0.69% B:0.01%) 61.43% (G:0.20% B:0.00%) | |
|
2. | XG Roller++ | 6/5 6/3 | eq: -0.129 (-0.001) |
| Player: Opponent: | 37.72% (G:0.74% B:0.01%) 62.28% (G:0.98% B:0.01%) | |
|
3. | XG Roller++ | 6/2 | eq: -0.132 (-0.003) |
| Player: Opponent: | 37.77% (G:0.74% B:0.01%) 62.23% (G:1.28% B:0.02%) | |
|
4. | XG Roller++ | 6/4(2) | eq: -0.136 (-0.008) |
| Player: Opponent: | 37.47% (G:0.74% B:0.01%) 62.53% (G:0.99% B:0.01%) | |
|
5. | XG Roller++ | 18/17(2) 6/4 | eq: -0.149 (-0.021) |
| Player: Opponent: | 36.76% (G:0.72% B:0.01%) 63.24% (G:0.65% B:0.01%) | |
|
6. | XG Roller++ | 5/4 5/2 | eq: -0.154 (-0.025) |
| Player: Opponent: | 36.45% (G:0.53% B:0.01%) 63.55% (G:0.95% B:0.01%) | |
|
7. | XG Roller++ | 18/17 18/15 | eq: -0.157 (-0.028) |
| Player: Opponent: | 38.14% (G:7.01% B:0.26%) 61.86% (G:5.79% B:0.08%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
With blots on 6pt and 5pt:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 66 | Unlimited Game | pip: 79 score: 0
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=-CBBBBB-----b-----Baacccb-:1:1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10 |
Blue to play 11 |
1. | XG Roller++ | 18/17 18/15 | eq: -0.107 |
| Player: Opponent: | 39.75% (G:6.15% B:0.20%) 60.25% (G:4.31% B:0.06%) | |
|
2. | XG Roller++ | 6/5 6/3 | eq: -0.143 (-0.036) |
| Player: Opponent: | 36.92% (G:0.94% B:0.01%) 63.08% (G:0.77% B:0.01%) | |
|
3. | XG Roller++ | 6/2 | eq: -0.149 (-0.042) |
| Player: Opponent: | 36.83% (G:0.90% B:0.01%) 63.17% (G:1.10% B:0.01%) | |
|
4. | XG Roller++ | 6/4(2) | eq: -0.150 (-0.043) |
| Player: Opponent: | 36.73% (G:0.95% B:0.01%) 63.27% (G:0.82% B:0.01%) | |
|
5. | XG Roller++ | 18/16(2) | eq: -0.169 (-0.062) |
| Player: Opponent: | 36.94% (G:0.71% B:0.01%) 63.06% (G:0.17% B:0.00%) | |
|
6. | XG Roller++ | 18/14 | eq: -0.204 (-0.097) |
| Player: Opponent: | 36.18% (G:6.23% B:0.24%) 63.82% (G:4.87% B:0.07%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
With blots on 5pt and 3pt:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 72 | Unlimited Game | pip: 79 score: 0
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=-CBBBBB-----b-----Bcacacb-:1:1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10 |
Blue to play 11 |
1. | XG Roller++ | 18/17 18/15 | eq: -0.038 |
| Player: Opponent: | 41.77% (G:8.04% B:0.35%) 58.23% (G:5.68% B:0.08%) | |
|
2. | XG Roller++ | 18/16(2) | eq: -0.049 (-0.011) |
| Player: Opponent: | 41.84% (G:0.90% B:0.01%) 58.16% (G:0.23% B:0.00%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
With blots on 5pt and 4pt:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 70 | Unlimited Game | pip: 79 score: 0
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=-CBBBBB-----b-----Bcaaccb-:1:1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10 |
Blue to play 11 |
1. | XG Roller++ | 18/16(2) | eq: -0.070 |
| Player: Opponent: | 41.14% (G:0.84% B:0.01%) 58.86% (G:0.15% B:0.00%) | |
|
2. | XG Roller++ | 6/5 6/3 | eq: -0.081 (-0.010) |
| Player: Opponent: | 39.70% (G:0.92% B:0.01%) 60.30% (G:0.81% B:0.01%) | |
|
3. | XG Roller++ | 6/4(2) | eq: -0.085 (-0.015) |
| Player: Opponent: | 39.51% (G:0.84% B:0.01%) 60.49% (G:0.80% B:0.01%) | |
|
4. | XG Roller++ | 6/2 | eq: -0.088 (-0.018) |
| Player: Opponent: | 39.46% (G:0.95% B:0.01%) 60.54% (G:1.12% B:0.01%) | |
|
5. | XG Roller++ | 18/17(2) 6/4 | eq: -0.098 (-0.028) |
| Player: Opponent: | 39.31% (G:0.83% B:0.01%) 60.69% (G:0.72% B:0.01%) | |
|
6. | XG Roller++ | 18/17 18/15 | eq: -0.099 (-0.029) |
| Player: Opponent: | 40.10% (G:6.37% B:0.22%) 59.90% (G:5.57% B:0.08%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
With blots on 4pt and 3pt:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 74 | Unlimited Game | pip: 79 score: 0
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=-CBBBBB-----b-----Bccaacb-:1:1:1:11:0:0:0:0:10 |
Blue to play 11 |
1. | XG Roller++ | 18/16(2) | eq: +0.006 |
| Player: Opponent: | 44.11% (G:0.96% B:0.01%) 55.89% (G:0.29% B:0.00%) | |
|
2. | XG Roller++ | 18/17(2) 6/4 | eq: -0.030 (-0.036) |
| Player: Opponent: | 42.22% (G:0.93% B:0.02%) 57.78% (G:0.97% B:0.02%) | |
|
3. | XG Roller++ | 18/17(2) 6/5(2) | eq: -0.044 (-0.050) |
| Player: Opponent: | 41.41% (G:0.98% B:0.02%) 58.59% (G:0.59% B:0.00%) | |
|
4. | XG Roller++ | 6/5 6/3 | eq: -0.057 (-0.063) |
| Player: Opponent: | 41.09% (G:0.95% B:0.02%) 58.91% (G:1.31% B:0.02%) | |
|
5. | XG Roller++ | 6/2 | eq: -0.060 (-0.065) |
| Player: Opponent: | 41.13% (G:1.01% B:0.02%) 58.87% (G:1.60% B:0.03%) | |
|
6. | XG Roller++ | 6/4(2) | eq: -0.060 (-0.066) |
| Player: Opponent: | 40.97% (G:0.85% B:0.02%) 59.03% (G:1.25% B:0.02%) | |
|
7. | XG Roller++ | 18/17(2) 5/4(2) | eq: -0.063 (-0.069) |
| Player: Opponent: | 40.55% (G:0.69% B:0.01%) 59.45% (G:0.75% B:0.01%) | |
|
8. | XG Roller++ | 18/17(2) 5/3 | eq: -0.071 (-0.077) |
| Player: Opponent: | 40.28% (G:0.86% B:0.02%) 59.72% (G:1.21% B:0.02%) | |
|
9. | XG Roller++ | 18/17 18/15 | eq: -0.075 (-0.081) |
| Player: Opponent: | 41.08% (G:6.95% B:0.27%) 58.92% (G:6.99% B:0.12%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
With blots on 4pt and 3pt, with cube back in the center:
| | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 74 | Unlimited Game | pip: 79 score: 0
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=-CBBBBB-----b-----Bccaacb-:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0:10 |
Blue to play 11 |
1. | XG Roller++ | 18/17 18/15 | eq: -0.189 |
| Player: Opponent: | 41.18% (G:6.93% B:0.27%) 58.82% (G:7.12% B:0.12%) | |
|
2. | XG Roller++ | 18/16(2) | eq: -0.198 (-0.009) |
| Player: Opponent: | 44.09% (G:1.02% B:0.02%) 55.91% (G:0.33% B:0.00%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
I forgot to check what happens if White owns the cube; I'll try to remember to investigate that and post if it turns out to be interesting.