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Rollout: Six-primed #2

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 31 March 2014, at 10:55 p.m.

In Response To: Six-primed #2 (Timothy Chow)

At some point one has to switch over from trying to win to trying to save the gammon. That point is not always so easy to discern OTB. Here I played 8/4(3) 6/2*, which is apparently the DMP play but loses too many gammons.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 128
Unlimited Game
pip: 98
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aaBDBC-C-a------bbbbbb-A-:1:1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 44

1.Rollout18/4 6/2*(3) eq: -0.960
Player:
Opponent:
6.55% (G:0.53% B:0.02%)
93.45% (G:11.29% B:0.42%)
Conf.: 0.004 (-0.964...-0.956) - [100.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 30 seconds
2.Rollout16/2*(2) 5/1*(2) eq: -0.990 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
6.32% (G:0.36% B:0.00%)
93.68% (G:13.66% B:0.36%)
Conf.: 0.004 (-0.994...-0.986) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 52 seconds
3.Rollout18/4 6/2* 5/1*(2) eq: -1.006 (-0.045)
Player:
Opponent:
6.35% (G:0.35% B:0.00%)
93.65% (G:15.00% B:0.63%)
Conf.: 0.004 (-1.010...-1.002) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 38 seconds
4.Rollout18/4(2) 5/1*(2) eq: -1.007 (-0.046)
Player:
Opponent:
6.03% (G:0.35% B:0.01%)
93.97% (G:14.34% B:0.50%)
Conf.: 0.004 (-1.010...-1.003) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 33 seconds
5.Rollout18/4(3) 6/2* eq: -1.022 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:
8.11% (G:0.83% B:0.04%)
91.89% (G:20.72% B:1.32%)
Conf.: 0.005 (-1.027...-1.017) - [0.0%]
Duration: 6 minutes 32 seconds
6.Rollout18/4(2) 6/2*(2) eq: -1.029 (-0.068)
Player:
Opponent:
7.47% (G:0.64% B:0.03%)
92.53% (G:19.75% B:1.10%)
Conf.: 0.005 (-1.033...-1.024) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 10 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10


Here's another position that I encountered in a different game, but that bears a family resemblance to the previous position. Again it seems that 8/4 6/2 5/1(2) is the DMP play but loses too many gammons.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 112
Unlimited Game
pip: 105
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=--AbBCCBC--------bbbbbbaA-:1:1:1:44:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 44

1.Rollout18/4 5/1(3)eq: -0.753
Player:
Opponent:
15.35% (G:2.40% B:0.04%)
84.65% (G:13.55% B:0.40%)
Conf.: 0.005 (-0.759...-0.748) - [92.3%]
Duration: 5 minutes 39 seconds
2.Rollout16/2 5/1(3)eq: -0.759 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:
15.91% (G:2.61% B:0.03%)
84.09% (G:15.53% B:0.49%)
Conf.: 0.005 (-0.764...-0.753) - [7.7%]
Duration: 5 minutes 06 seconds
3.Rollout18/4(3) 6/2eq: -0.788 (-0.035)
Player:
Opponent:
12.78% (G:2.62% B:0.06%)
87.22% (G:10.16% B:0.32%)
Conf.: 0.005 (-0.793...-0.784) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 35 seconds
4.Rollout18/4(3) 5/1eq: -0.800 (-0.047)
Player:
Opponent:
12.84% (G:2.62% B:0.04%)
87.16% (G:11.68% B:0.37%)
Conf.: 0.005 (-0.805...-0.795) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 52 seconds
5.Rollout18/4 6/2 5/1(2)eq: -0.807 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
16.69% (G:3.45% B:0.07%)
83.31% (G:22.35% B:0.71%)
Conf.: 0.006 (-0.812...-0.801) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 28 seconds
6.Rollout18/4 6/2(3)eq: -0.823 (-0.070)
Player:
Opponent:
12.84% (G:1.77% B:0.03%)
87.16% (G:14.11% B:0.46%)
Conf.: 0.005 (-0.828...-0.817) - [0.0%]
Duration: 5 minutes 38 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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