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Advanced Backgammon #68 -- Rollout and Variants

Posted By: Igor
Date: Wednesday, 2 April 2014, at 3:00 p.m.

In Response To: Advanced Backgammon #68 (Igor)

White has ten checkers in the zone and a three and a half point board. Since we are ahead in the race, we should be looking to minimize shots. The safest move is 14/8 3/2, suggested by Mike, but the stack on our 6pt begs development. So, 14/8 6/5 it is as it triplicates ones and duplicates fours. Making the five point is almost a blunder here.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 133
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 106
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ABAa-Fb---BbBA--a-bdab---:0:0:1:61:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout114/8 6/5eq: -0.163
Player:
Opponent:
45.77% (G:11.65% B:0.38%)
54.23% (G:19.57% B:0.83%)
Conf.: 0.008 (-0.171...-0.154) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 47 seconds
2.Rollout114/8 2/1eq: -0.188 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:
45.37% (G:11.82% B:0.47%)
54.63% (G:17.27% B:0.60%)
Conf.: 0.008 (-0.196...-0.180) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 41 seconds
3.Rollout214/8 3/2eq: -0.217 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:
44.17% (G:11.59% B:0.47%)
55.83% (G:17.45% B:0.53%)
Conf.: 0.011 (-0.228...-0.206) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 28 seconds
4.Rollout211/5 6/5eq: -0.237 (-0.074)
Player:
Opponent:
43.94% (G:15.64% B:0.94%)
56.06% (G:20.95% B:1.03%)
Conf.: 0.010 (-0.247...-0.227) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 03 seconds
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13905256
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13905256
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Add another covering number for white and making the 5pt is now tied with the safer play.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 134
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 106
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ABAa-Fb---BbBA--a-ccab---:0:0:1:61:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout111/5 6/5eq: -0.283
Player:
Opponent:
42.14% (G:15.24% B:0.88%)
57.86% (G:22.52% B:1.12%)
Conf.: 0.002 (-0.285...-0.281) - [86.2%]
Duration: 2 hours 19 minutes
2.Rollout114/8 6/5eq: -0.284 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
42.10% (G:10.36% B:0.37%)
57.90% (G:21.71% B:0.90%)
Conf.: 0.002 (-0.286...-0.283) - [13.8%]
Duration: 2 hours 26 minutes
3.Rollout214/8 2/1eq: -0.315 (-0.032)
Player:
Opponent:
42.20% (G:10.48% B:0.36%)
57.80% (G:18.90% B:0.61%)
Conf.: 0.016 (-0.331...-0.299) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 19 seconds
4.Rollout214/8 3/2eq: -0.354 (-0.071)
Player:
Opponent:
40.43% (G:10.35% B:0.39%)
59.57% (G:19.46% B:0.56%)
Conf.: 0.011 (-0.366...-0.343) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 18 seconds
1 46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 35994417
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 35994417
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Change a covering number from the four to the five and 11pt is best left intact.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 135
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 106
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-ABAa-Fb---BbBA-a--ccab---:0:0:1:61:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 61

1.Rollout114/8 6/5eq: -0.290
Player:
Opponent:
42.06% (G:10.02% B:0.33%)
57.94% (G:20.84% B:0.80%)
Conf.: 0.008 (-0.298...-0.281) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 34 seconds
2.Rollout114/8 2/1eq: -0.310 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
42.05% (G:9.95% B:0.32%)
57.95% (G:18.46% B:0.57%)
Conf.: 0.008 (-0.318...-0.301) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 41 seconds
3.Rollout211/5 6/5eq: -0.345 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:
40.65% (G:14.66% B:0.92%)
59.35% (G:23.23% B:0.98%)
Conf.: 0.013 (-0.358...-0.332) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 minutes 00 second
1 2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67781547
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 67781547
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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