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51$-65R-54P-32S-55P-52P-22@-55, Rollout

Posted By: Nack Ballard
Date: Sunday, 6 April 2014, at 5:27 p.m.

In Response To: 51$-65R-54P-32S-55P-52P-22@-55 (Nack Ballard)





White is Player 1

score: 0
pip: 124
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 148
score: 0

Blue is Player 2
XGID=-B-B-aC-D---dBb--c-eB-----:0:0:-1:55:0:0:3:0:10

51$-65R-54P-32S-55P-52P-22@-55
[M Y1 P11 y38 G39 Z62] "<=31**5


1.Rollout120/15 13/3 8/3eq: -0.253
Player:
Opponent:
44.07% (G:4.44% B:0.20%)
55.93% (G:13.08% B:0.16%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.255...-0.251) - [63.3%]
Duration: 3 hours 55 minutes
2.Rollout120/10 6/1(2)eq: -0.254 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:
43.51% (G:5.19% B:0.19%)
56.49% (G:13.88% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.256...-0.251) - [36.7%]
Duration: 3 hours 47 minutes
3.Rollout113/3(2)eq: -0.264 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:
44.71% (G:6.11% B:0.27%)
55.29% (G:15.94% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.266...-0.262) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 hours 25 minutes
4.Rollout220/15 13/8 6/1(2)eq: -0.291 (-0.038)
Player:
Opponent:
43.09% (G:4.32% B:0.17%)
56.91% (G:14.30% B:0.15%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.296...-0.286) - [0.0%]
Duration: 44 minutes 14 seconds
5.Rollout220/10 13/3eq: -0.291 (-0.039)
Player:
Opponent:
43.03% (G:4.49% B:0.21%)
56.97% (G:13.87% B:0.20%)
Conf.: ± 0.005 (-0.297...-0.286) - [0.0%]
Duration: 50 minutes 07 seconds
6.Rollout220/10 13/8(2)eq: -0.315 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:
42.35% (G:4.33% B:0.20%)
57.65% (G:14.08% B:0.21%)
Conf.: ± 0.006 (-0.321...-0.310) - [0.0%]
Duration: 32 minutes 58 seconds
1 31104 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 65904545
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 65904545
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller


Tim's choice tops the rollout, though the first two moves are too close to call (differing by .001 but actually .0006 to the fourth decimal, after 31k), and the third move is very close (almost tied).

Below, I list the XGR++ evaluation on the first row, and the rollout result (that is detailed above) on the second row, emboldened.

Note: These moves are unusually tricky to nactate, because four out of the six are tri-areal (played in three areas -- run, down, and either jump or inside), and the letters are of the "110" variety (see section 16 of the tutorial), hence underlined. Nevertheless, they fly right off my fingertips, because I've practiced them -- anyone can do it.

........[P M2 Y9 y43 G43 Z68] "&e ........................(evaluation)
........[M Y1 P11 y38 G39 Z62] "<=31**5 ............(rollout)

Key: M = Magnify (20/15 13/3 8/3), Y = Yosemite (20/10 6/1(2)), y = yosemite (20/15 13/8 6/1(2)), P = Point (13/3(2)), G = Glasses (20/10 13/3), Z = reverse split 1:3 doublets (20/10 13/8(2)).

Stick's suggested variant, with one of White's 8pt spares back on midpoint (reachable by 63R-55A-51R-54S-32P-54S-55), is diagrammed below. The nacbracs, captioned in red, is a summary of the detailed XGR++ evaluation data that follows it.

........Nactation tutorial ....(For larger text, click on the double-arrow to the right of “Bookmarks”)
........Explanation of nacbracs

Nack




White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 129
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 148
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-----bE-C--BcD---c-cA-b-b-:0:0:1:55:0:0:3:0:10

63R-55A-51R-54S-32P-54S-55
[Y M19 G30 Z40 y56 P69] "&e


1.XG Roller++20/10 6/1(2)eq: -0.195
Player:
Opponent:
45.99% (G:4.77% B:0.11%)
54.01% (G:11.94% B:0.17%)
2.XG Roller++20/15 13/3 8/3eq: -0.214 (-0.020)
Player:
Opponent:
46.11% (G:4.21% B:0.14%)
53.89% (G:12.28% B:0.13%)
3.XG Roller++20/10 13/3eq: -0.225 (-0.031)
Player:
Opponent:
45.58% (G:4.27% B:0.16%)
54.42% (G:12.31% B:0.15%)
4.XG Roller++20/10 13/8(2)eq: -0.235 (-0.041)
Player:
Opponent:
45.29% (G:4.11% B:0.15%)
54.71% (G:12.51% B:0.16%)
5.XG Roller++20/15 13/8 6/1(2)eq: -0.251 (-0.056)
Player:
Opponent:
45.11% (G:4.52% B:0.12%)
54.89% (G:13.55% B:0.15%)
6.XG Roller++13/3(2)eq: -0.264 (-0.069)
Player:
Opponent:
45.54% (G:6.29% B:0.23%)
54.46% (G:16.05% B:0.17%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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