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Proposition and Elo
Posted By: AdamStocks
Date: Tuesday, 8 April 2014, at 2:47 a.m.
In Response To: Proposition and Elo (Robert Chow)
The calculation would go something like this: If we assume that each game is worth about 2 points (estimates vary but it's in this ballpark), then 0.15 points equates to 0.15/2=0.075 normalised EMG (nEMG). Furthermore, assuming that the average number of moves per player in each game is, say, 20 (estimates vary), then the nEMG difference per move is 0.075/20=0.00375 nEMG. According to the XG PR formula, multiply this by 500 and get 500*0.0037=1.875 PR difference. Using 1.00 PR=33 Elo points, then Elo difference to break even is 33*1.875=61.875 Elo. Having said that, the XG Elo formula is different to other formulas such as GridGammon or Fibs etc, so one needs to specify which Elo formula is to be used. The figure of 20 moves might be a tad on the high side, so I would say roughly 5060 Elo as a guide.

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