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Advanced Backgammon #91 -- Rollout and Variants

Posted By: Igor
Date: Sunday, 13 April 2014, at 4:04 p.m.

In Response To: Advanced Backgammon #91 (Igor)

This position demonstrates the defensive power of the 5 point against a blitz.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 158 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 138 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=bA-B-AD-A---cDa--cAdb---A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	64.32% (G:36.34% B:1.39%)	64.40% (G:37.83% B:1.31%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	35.68% (G:9.55% B:0.57%)	35.60% (G:10.26% B:0.63%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.563	+1.141
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.688 (-0.168)	±0.012 (+0.676..+0.701)
Double/Take:	+0.856	±0.022 (+0.834..+0.879)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.144)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1174043 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 5 minutes 34 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Switching to the 4 point makes this a pass.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 156 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 138 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=bA-B-AD-A---cDa--cAd-b--A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	66.03% (G:37.22% B:1.45%)	66.61% (G:39.13% B:1.44%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	33.97% (G:8.90% B:0.53%)	33.39% (G:9.46% B:0.62%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.613	+1.274
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.745 (-0.255)	±0.004 (+0.741..+0.748)
Double/Take:	+1.015 (+0.015)	±0.007 (+1.008..+1.022)
Double/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 1174043 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 38 minutes 37 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

More variants suggested by the community:

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 160 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 138 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=bA-B-AD-A---dD---cAdb---A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	62.27% (G:34.11% B:0.47%)	62.54% (G:35.07% B:0.51%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	37.73% (G:10.24% B:0.59%)	37.46% (G:10.60% B:0.68%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.483	+0.988
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.632 (-0.064)	±0.013 (+0.619..+0.645)
Double/Take:	+0.696	±0.017 (+0.678..+0.713)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.304)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 45156616 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 5 minutes 49 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 158 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 133 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=bA-B-AD-B---cCa--cAdb---A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	67.11% (G:40.09% B:1.41%)	67.76% (G:42.65% B:1.52%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	32.89% (G:8.07% B:0.41%)	32.24% (G:8.50% B:0.48%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.672	+1.414
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.775 (-0.225)	±0.009 (+0.766..+0.785)
Double/Take:	+1.161 (+0.161)	±0.016 (+1.145..+1.177)
Double/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 45156616 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 38 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 158 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 131 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=bA-B-AE-A---cCa--cAdb---A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	66.20% (G:40.14% B:1.49%)	66.60% (G:42.03% B:1.42%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	33.80% (G:8.59% B:0.47%)	33.40% (G:9.05% B:0.53%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.650	+1.342
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.732 (-0.268)	±0.011 (+0.721..+0.743)
Double/Take:	+1.080 (+0.080)	±0.017 (+1.063..+1.097)
Double/Pass:	+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 45156616 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 44 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Messages In This Thread

• Advanced Backgammon #91
  Igor -- Wednesday, 9 April 2014, at 12:15 a.m.
  • Advanced Backgammon #91
    Timothy Chow -- Wednesday, 9 April 2014, at 1:07 a.m.
  • Advanced Backgammon #91
    Robert Chow -- Wednesday, 9 April 2014, at 2:06 a.m.
  • 21$-51$-62C-52P-52S-43K-5-63X-F-C
    Nack Ballard -- Wednesday, 9 April 2014, at 5:36 a.m.
  • Advanced Backgammon #91
    ah_clem -- Wednesday, 9 April 2014, at 8:06 p.m.
  • Advanced Backgammon #91 -- Rollout and Variants
    Igor -- Sunday, 13 April 2014, at 4:04 p.m.
  • Thanks for including variants
    Robert Chow -- Monday, 14 April 2014, at 1:47 a.m.
    • Thanks for including variants
      Igor -- Monday, 14 April 2014, at 4:29 p.m.