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Advanced Backgammon #91 -- Rollout and Variants

Posted By: Igor
Date: Sunday, 13 April 2014, at 4:04 p.m.

In Response To: Advanced Backgammon #91 (Igor)

This position demonstrates the defensive power of the 5 point against a blitz.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 158
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 138
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=bA-B-AD-A---cDa--cAdb---A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.32% (G:36.34% B:1.39%) 64.40% (G:37.83% B:1.31%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.68% (G:9.55% B:0.57%) 35.60% (G:10.26% B:0.63%)
Cubeless Equities +0.563 +1.141
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.688 (-0.168)0.012 (+0.676..+0.701)
Double/Take:+0.8560.022 (+0.834..+0.879)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.144)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1174043
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 5 minutes 34 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Switching to the 4 point makes this a pass.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 156
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 138
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=bA-B-AD-A---cDa--cAd-b--A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.03% (G:37.22% B:1.45%) 66.61% (G:39.13% B:1.44%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.97% (G:8.90% B:0.53%) 33.39% (G:9.46% B:0.62%)
Cubeless Equities +0.613 +1.274
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.745 (-0.255)0.004 (+0.741..+0.748)
Double/Take:+1.015 (+0.015)0.007 (+1.008..+1.022)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
10368 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 1174043
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 38 minutes 37 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

More variants suggested by the community:





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 160
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 138
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=bA-B-AD-A---dD---cAdb---A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 62.27% (G:34.11% B:0.47%) 62.54% (G:35.07% B:0.51%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 37.73% (G:10.24% B:0.59%) 37.46% (G:10.60% B:0.68%)
Cubeless Equities +0.483 +0.988
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.632 (-0.064)0.013 (+0.619..+0.645)
Double/Take:+0.6960.017 (+0.678..+0.713)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.304)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45156616
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 5 minutes 49 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 158
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 133
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=bA-B-AD-B---cCa--cAdb---A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.11% (G:40.09% B:1.41%) 67.76% (G:42.65% B:1.52%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.89% (G:8.07% B:0.41%) 32.24% (G:8.50% B:0.48%)
Cubeless Equities +0.672 +1.414
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.775 (-0.225)0.009 (+0.766..+0.785)
Double/Take:+1.161 (+0.161)0.016 (+1.145..+1.177)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45156616
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 38 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 158
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 131
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=bA-B-AE-A---cCa--cAdb---A-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 66.20% (G:40.14% B:1.49%) 66.60% (G:42.03% B:1.42%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 33.80% (G:8.59% B:0.47%) 33.40% (G:9.05% B:0.53%)
Cubeless Equities +0.650 +1.342
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.732 (-0.268)0.011 (+0.721..+0.743)
Double/Take:+1.080 (+0.080)0.017 (+1.063..+1.097)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 45156616
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 44 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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