Posted By: Timothy Chow In Response To: 63S-65K-1-C.–4–p (scotty)
Date: Tuesday, 15 April 2014, at 11:54 p.m.
In Response To: 63S-65K-1-C.–4–p (scotty)
More generally, cube decisions are governed by what might happen in the next exchange and not by overall winning or gammon chances.
I often encounter players who treat a too-good-or-not decision as a decision whether to cash now or to commit to playing on for a gammon until the bitter end of the game. But that's not how it works (or at least not how it should work). A commitment to play on is only a commitment to play on for one more turn. At that point, you must (or should) re-assess the position again. Every roll is a cube decision!
So for example, if you have relatively few gammon chances, but the position is so stable that there's no way you're going to regain your market in the next exchange, then there's no reason to cash now rather than next turn. You don't risk anything by waiting a turn and you might gain by doing so.
Conversely, if you have significant gammon chances but there are many sequences that lead you to regain your market, then you might need to cash now.
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