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Advanced Backgammon #99 -- Rollout and Variants

Posted By: Igor
Date: Tuesday, 29 April 2014, at 6:12 p.m.

In Response To: Advanced Backgammon #99 (Igor)

This is a huge pass; a four prime is a pretty weak weapon against an anchor at the edge of it.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 153
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 124
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aaB-BBC-B---cB---bccbB----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 68.97% (G:38.55% B:1.12%) 69.82% (G:45.83% B:0.80%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 31.03% (G:6.00% B:0.29%) 30.18% (G:6.68% B:0.35%)
Cubeless Equities +0.713 +1.585
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.826 (-0.174)±0.009 (+0.818..+0.835)
Double/Take:+1.344 (+0.344)±0.018 (+1.326..+1.362)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 46610111
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 34 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Now to the variants. With white off the bar and anchored on the ace point it's not even a double. White has both solid structure and timing.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 152
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 124
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-bB-BBC-B---cB---bccbB----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 60.89% (G:20.39% B:1.42%) 61.32% (G:20.05% B:1.36%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 39.11% (G:8.19% B:0.35%) 38.68% (G:7.92% B:0.31%)
Cubeless Equities +0.351 +0.717
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.480±0.016 (+0.464..+0.496)
Double/Take:+0.421 (-0.059)±0.019 (+0.403..+0.440)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.520)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 9.2%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 46610111
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 5 minutes 29 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

White off the bar but not anchored is double and take. Blue has 11 checkers in the zone for quite a few gammons, but white's solid forward structure wins just enough single games to take.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 150
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 124
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-aBaBBC-B---cB---bccbB----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.98% (G:34.72% B:0.91%) 64.37% (G:37.55% B:0.85%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.02% (G:7.92% B:0.39%) 35.63% (G:8.04% B:0.39%)
Cubeless Equities +0.553 +1.174
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.633 (-0.256)±0.012 (+0.621..+0.645)
Double/Take:+0.889±0.018 (+0.871..+0.907)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.111)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 46610111
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 21 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

With five prime it's a big no double.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 158
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 124
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aaB-BBC-B---cB--bbbbbB----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 56.12% (G:33.12% B:0.76%) 56.08% (G:33.70% B:0.68%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 43.88% (G:8.52% B:0.35%) 43.92% (G:8.82% B:0.38%)
Cubeless Equities +0.373 +0.747
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.482±0.017 (+0.465..+0.499)
Double/Take:+0.377 (-0.105)±0.023 (+0.354..+0.400)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.518)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 14.4%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 46610111
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 5 minutes 44 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

If one checker escapes, it's a pass.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 158
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 116
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=aaB-BBC-B---cC--bbbbbA----:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 67.66% (G:40.06% B:0.76%) 67.61% (G:41.59% B:0.70%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 32.34% (G:5.00% B:0.26%) 32.39% (G:5.34% B:0.23%)
Cubeless Equities +0.709 +1.439
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.795 (-0.205)±0.008 (+0.786..+0.803)
Double/Take:+1.172 (+0.172)±0.019 (+1.153..+1.191)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 89485189
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 53 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Finally, a variant due to Robert: shifting blue anchor back one point -- will be posted later today when the rollout completes.

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