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63S-62X-51 — No Jacoby, No Beavers — 3-ply XG2 Rollout

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Wednesday, 7 May 2014, at 9:36 p.m.

In Response To: OLM 20140418A ROLLOUT (Jason Lee)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 159
Unlimited Game
pip: 165
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-a--E-C-A-dD---cae----AA:0:0:1:51:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 51

1.Rollout1Bar/24 13/8eq: -0.1940
Player:
Opponent:		45.46% (G:12.99% B:0.54%)
54.54% (G:16.34% B:0.93%)		Conf.: ±0.0047 (-0.1987...-0.1892) - [100.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 00 minute
2.Rollout1Bar/24 6/1* eq: -0.2230 (-0.0291)
Player:
Opponent:		44.69% (G:12.65% B:0.41%)
55.31% (G:16.60% B:0.92%)		Conf.: ±0.0045 (-0.2275...-0.2185) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 02 minutes
3.Rollout1Bar/20 24/23eq: -0.2233 (-0.0294)
Player:
Opponent:		45.24% (G:11.53% B:0.54%)
54.76% (G:17.12% B:0.77%)		Conf.: ±0.0046 (-0.2279...-0.2188) - [0.0%]
Duration: 2 hours 04 minutes
4.Rollout2Bar/24 8/3* eq: -0.2463 (-0.0524)
Player:
Opponent:		44.61% (G:12.55% B:0.56%)
55.39% (G:17.60% B:1.20%)		Conf.: ±0.0084 (-0.2547...-0.2379) - [0.0%]
Duration: 46 minutes 19 seconds
 
1 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81346345
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 81346345
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

Rollout by Taper_Mike
2014-May-06
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
63S-62X-51-n-tm.xgp
n[S h29 U29 H52] "<=15**5
n[S U37 h43 H58] "&e

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

63S-62X-51 — Unlimited Games
Bot Seed Equity Nacbracs Link
GnuBg 1.02 2-ply Trunc 709131049 –188.745 n[S U34 h34 H57] '/0.360t Taper_Mike
XG 2.10 3-ply, Cubes: XGR 81346345 –194.0 n[S h29 U29 H52] "<=15**5 Taper_Mike (above)
XG 2.10 XGR++ Eval [XGR++ seed] –187.7 n[S U37 h43 H58] "&e Taper_Mike

63S-62X-51 — According to Score
Bot Seed Equity Nacbracs Link
XG 2.10 4-ply, MET: Kazaross XG2 95635457 –217 –6–7 [S U28 h39 $62 H67 B90] "^1 Jason Lee

Key: $ = Slot [bar/20, 6/5], % = Alternate slot [bar/24, 10/5], B = Both [bar/20, 10/9], H = Hit [bar/24, 8/3*],
h = hit [bar/24, 6/1*], S = Split = Z = Reverse split [bar/24, 13/8], U = Up [bar/20, 24/23]

Nactation Tutorial • Explanation of nacbracs • Nacbracs for cube actions

Neil has been reminding us to learn how to play the follow-up to the openings we prefer. Here is another example where we broke down. Only two of the Prime Factors got this one right!

I was reluctant to remake the 24pt when it is likely to be primed on the next roll. The best play did not even make my list of candidates:

I’m not sure it’s right, but the Dillies have enough going on that I decided to make a tempo hit. I wasn’t sure whether to hit on the 1pt or 3pt, so I chose the one with the fewest return shots. At least 1s are duped.

The only alternative I could find is U = bar/20, 24/23. That play would give the Dillies 7 and 9 to hit outside, 6 and 1 to cover the bar, and combinations of 1, 2, 3, and 4 to make their 4pt or 5pt.

Igor got this right, and included this obsevation and request:

It is usually correct to play D (Down) in 6xS-6xH-51 or 6xS-6xX-51. I hope our resident opening experts would explain why.

Any ideas?

Mike

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