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Advanced Backgammon #103 -- Rollout and Variants

Posted By: Igor
Date: Thursday, 8 May 2014, at 3:50 p.m.

In Response To: Advanced Backgammon #103 (Igor)

This is a borderline double. Blue needs to roll ace or a deuce quickly followed by a six. This gives plenty of single game wins for white for an easy take.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 152
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 124
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=bBB--BD---A-dB----bcbb--B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 56.62% (G:40.73% B:0.29%) 56.91% (G:41.27% B:0.24%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 43.38% (G:12.38% B:0.75%) 43.09% (G:12.66% B:0.80%)
Cubeless Equities +0.411 +0.838
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.494 (-0.007)0.003 (+0.492..+0.497)
Double/Take:+0.5010.004 (+0.497..+0.505)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.499)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 43721024
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:99.7%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 2 hours 23 minutes

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

If you let just one blue checker see the light, it's a pass.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 152
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 123
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=bBB--BD---A-dB----bcbb-AA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 64.69% (G:47.67% B:0.36%) 64.96% (G:48.78% B:0.26%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 35.31% (G:9.32% B:0.62%) 35.04% (G:9.77% B:0.71%)
Cubeless Equities +0.675 +1.370
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.801 (-0.199)0.010 (+0.791..+0.811)
Double/Take:+1.083 (+0.083)0.019 (+1.065..+1.102)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 6729921
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 00 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Give blue a little more breathing room and it's a huge double.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 160
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 124
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=bBB--BD---A-dB---bbcb---B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 61.25% (G:46.71% B:0.31%) 61.96% (G:48.18% B:0.27%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 38.75% (G:9.07% B:0.50%) 38.04% (G:9.41% B:0.57%)
Cubeless Equities +0.600 +1.248
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.716 (-0.217)0.012 (+0.703..+0.728)
Double/Take:+0.9330.019 (+0.914..+0.952)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.067)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 6729921
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 4 minutes 09 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

One more little step even without seeing the light and it's a pass.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 160
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 123
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=bBB--BD---A-dB---bbcb--AA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 63.91% (G:48.67% B:0.32%) 64.42% (G:50.31% B:0.27%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 36.09% (G:8.10% B:0.41%) 35.58% (G:8.71% B:0.48%)
Cubeless Equities +0.683 +1.405
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.799 (-0.201)0.009 (+0.790..+0.809)
Double/Take:+1.109 (+0.109)0.018 (+1.090..+1.127)
Double/Pass:+1.000
Best Cube action: Double / Pass
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 6729921
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 3 minutes 31 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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