This is a borderline double. Blue needs to roll ace or a deuce quickly followed by a six. This gives plenty of single game wins for white for an easy take.
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| XGID=bBB--BD---A-dB----bcbb--B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 56.62% (G:40.73% B:0.29%) | 56.91% (G:41.27% B:0.24%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 43.38% (G:12.38% B:0.75%) | 43.09% (G:12.66% B:0.80%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.411 | +0.838 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.494 (-0.007) | ±0.003 (+0.492..+0.497) |
| Double/Take: | +0.501 | ±0.004 (+0.497..+0.505) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.499) | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 46656 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 43721024 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 99.7% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 2 hours 23 minutes | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
If you let just one blue checker see the light, it's a pass.
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| XGID=bBB--BD---A-dB----bcbb-AA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 64.69% (G:47.67% B:0.36%) | 64.96% (G:48.78% B:0.26%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 35.31% (G:9.32% B:0.62%) | 35.04% (G:9.77% B:0.71%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.675 | +1.370 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.801 (-0.199) | ±0.010 (+0.791..+0.811) |
| Double/Take: | +1.083 (+0.083) | ±0.019 (+1.065..+1.102) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Pass | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 6729921 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 3 minutes 00 second | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Give blue a little more breathing room and it's a huge double.
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| XGID=bBB--BD---A-dB---bbcb---B-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 61.25% (G:46.71% B:0.31%) | 61.96% (G:48.18% B:0.27%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 38.75% (G:9.07% B:0.50%) | 38.04% (G:9.41% B:0.57%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.600 | +1.248 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.716 (-0.217) | ±0.012 (+0.703..+0.728) |
| Double/Take: | +0.933 | ±0.019 (+0.914..+0.952) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 (+0.067) | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Take | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 6729921 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 4 minutes 09 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
One more little step even without seeing the light and it's a pass.
|
| ||||
| XGID=bBB--BD---A-dB---bbcb--AA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10 | |||||
| Blue on roll, cube action? | |||||
| Analyzed in Rollout | No double | Double/Take |
| Player Winning Chances: | 63.91% (G:48.67% B:0.32%) | 64.42% (G:50.31% B:0.27%) |
| Opponent Winning Chances: | 36.09% (G:8.10% B:0.41%) | 35.58% (G:8.71% B:0.48%) |
| Cubeless Equities | +0.683 | +1.405 |
| Cubeful Equities | ||
| No double: | +0.799 (-0.201) | ±0.009 (+0.790..+0.809) |
| Double/Take: | +1.109 (+0.109) | ±0.018 (+1.090..+1.127) |
| Double/Pass: | +1.000 | |
| Best Cube action: Double / Pass | ||
| Rollout details | ||
| 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 6729921 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller | ||
| Double Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Take Decision confidence: | 100.0% | |
| Duration: 3 minutes 31 seconds | ||
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10