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OLM 20140605B The Prime Factors
Posted By: kruidenbuiltje
Date: Thursday, 5 June 2014, at 8:57 p.m.
In Response To: OLM 20140605B The Prime Factors (Jason Lee)
What is the risk of each of the following moves:
a. 4off 4/3
b. 5/1 5/4
a: {63,61,53,51,43,41,31} = 14/36 blotting numbers
b: {65,64,54} = 6/36 blotting numbers
There is a difference of 8/36 blotting numbers
These give 8/36 x 11/36 = 88/1296 hits.

What percentage of these hit is a win?
One checker closed out is mostly not enough for a win with on average (at the time) 10,5 checkers off.
But the blue position is very vulnerable when it comes to giving extra pickupblots.
With 2 checkers closedout the position is about 50% winning i guess.
So lets give white 25% wins after a hit, that's 22/1296 wins, almost 2%.
So the extra risk is 2%.

I'm not good at calculating EPC's but my feeling says that there is not such a big difference between the positions after a) and b).
The advantage (extra gammons) only seems to occur after a {65,D5,D6} first, followed by two moves containing 3to 6.
The chance of this occuring is 4/36 x 16/36^2 = 1/9 x 256/1296 = about 28/1296.
22/1296 losses vs. 28/1296 gammons means that the risk is too high.
Answer: 5/4 5/1

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