Comparing 53P-63S-66 to 53P-21S-66 is an interesting comparison. As is comparing 53P-63S-66 to 42P-63S-66.
53P-63S-66
         
 
         
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 158 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 159
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a-B--DaB---dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:66:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 66 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 13/7*(2) 7/1*(2) | eq: +0.865 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 67.60% (G:39.83% B:1.23%)
32.40% (G:7.09% B:0.33%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 24/18(2) 13/7*(2) | eq: +0.837 (-0.028) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 68.84% (G:21.54% B:0.89%)
31.16% (G:5.69% B:0.19%) | |
|
| 3. | 2-ply | 13/7*(2) 8/2(2) | eq: +0.658 (-0.206) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63.29% (G:28.97% B:1.49%)
36.71% (G:8.32% B:0.35%) | |
|
| 4. | 2-ply | 24/18 13/7*(3) | eq: +0.653 (-0.212) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.00% (G:25.79% B:1.67%)
36.00% (G:8.11% B:0.33%) | |
|
| 5. | 2-ply | 24/18(2) 13/7* 7/1* | eq: +0.630 (-0.234) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63.12% (G:24.69% B:1.04%)
36.88% (G:7.67% B:0.27%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
53P-31Z-66
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 163 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 159
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-aaB--D-B---dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:66:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 66 |
| 1. | 3-ply | 24/18(2) 13/7(2) | eq: +0.739 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 66.76% (G:21.06% B:0.77%)
33.24% (G:6.64% B:0.19%) | |
|
| 2. | 3-ply | 13/7(2) 8/2*(2) | eq: +0.651 (-0.088) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 62.96% (G:29.40% B:1.56%)
37.04% (G:8.15% B:0.39%) | |
|
| 3. | 3-ply | 24/18(2) 8/2*(2) | eq: +0.616 (-0.122) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63.26% (G:24.57% B:1.20%)
36.74% (G:7.56% B:0.31%) | |
|
| 4. | 3-ply | 13/1* 8/2*(2) | eq: +0.600 (-0.138) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 61.33% (G:32.22% B:1.19%)
38.67% (G:9.42% B:0.51%) | |
|
| 5. | 2-ply | 13/1*(2) | eq: +0.548 (-0.191) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 59.96% (G:28.78% B:1.11%)
40.04% (G:9.64% B:0.46%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
1 checker on the bar instead of 2 is a huge swing against the attacking play. Your opponent has a lot more chances just to anchor up and kill your blitz stone dead.
53P-63S-66
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 158 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 159
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a-B--DaB---dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:66:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 66 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 13/7*(2) 7/1*(2) | eq: +0.865 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 67.60% (G:39.83% B:1.23%)
32.40% (G:7.09% B:0.33%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 24/18(2) 13/7*(2) | eq: +0.837 (-0.028) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 68.84% (G:21.54% B:0.89%)
31.16% (G:5.69% B:0.19%) | |
|
| 3. | 2-ply | 13/7*(2) 8/2(2) | eq: +0.658 (-0.206) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63.29% (G:28.97% B:1.49%)
36.71% (G:8.32% B:0.35%) | |
|
| 4. | 2-ply | 24/18 13/7*(3) | eq: +0.653 (-0.212) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.00% (G:25.79% B:1.67%)
36.00% (G:8.11% B:0.33%) | |
|
| 5. | 2-ply | 24/18(2) 13/7* 7/1* | eq: +0.630 (-0.234) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 63.12% (G:24.69% B:1.04%)
36.88% (G:7.67% B:0.27%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
The made 3-point is deep enough to favour a blitz approach over a more pure positional approach.
42P-63s-66
| | White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 158 | Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver | pip: 161
score: 0
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=-a--B-DaB---dE-a-c-e----B-:0:0:1:66:0:0:3:0:10 |
| Blue to play 66 |
| 1. | XG Roller+ | 24/18(2) 13/7*(2) | eq: +0.928 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 71.36% (G:20.72% B:0.90%)
28.64% (G:5.01% B:0.15%) | |
|
| 2. | XG Roller+ | 13/7*(2) 7/1*(2) | eq: +0.897 (-0.031) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 68.86% (G:40.93% B:1.35%)
31.14% (G:6.56% B:0.30%) | |
|
| 3. | 3-ply | 24/18 13/7*(3) | eq: +0.796 (-0.132) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 66.62% (G:27.45% B:1.76%)
33.38% (G:7.11% B:0.27%) | |
|
| 4. | 2-ply | 13/7*(2) 8/2(2) | eq: +0.746 (-0.181) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 65.11% (G:30.45% B:1.74%)
34.89% (G:7.84% B:0.34%) | |
|
| 5. | 2-ply | 13/7*(3) 7/1* | eq: +0.693 (-0.235) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 64.06% (G:31.91% B:1.51%)
35.94% (G:8.60% B:0.46%) | |
|
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
By contrast the made 4-point favours the positional play.
I guess the simple lesson is that when you've already made deeper points your blitzing potential goes up and your priming potential goes down so you should favour blitzing. When you've made higher points you can play a more balanced game.
If we look at 64P-63S-66 and 31P-63S-66 we see this analysis confirmed.
With the made 2-point blitzing is even more right than with the made 3-point. With the 5-point not blitzing is more right than with the made 4-point.