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BGonline.org Forums
Advanced Backgammon #155
Posted By: Taper_Mike In Response To: Advanced Backgammon #155 (Igor)
Date: Wednesday, 11 June 2014, at 9:57 p.m.
Suppose Blue does not cube. Then, 30% of the time, he will lose his market when he rolls a 6. 14% of the time Blue will roll 4 pips or less, and be able to hold his prime. The other 56%, however, will have him cracking.
Once Blue cracks, it is hard to see a definitive advantage for either side. Rolling a 6 is a mixed blessing, for the player who gets one first will be inevitably attacked.
To make a rough estimate, let’s award 11 games to Blue when he rolls a 6. Let’s also give Blue 3 of the 5 games where he rolls 4 pips or less. Finally, let’s split the other 20 games down the middle. By these numbers, Blue wins 24 games; White wins 12.
Gammons will complicate the issue. When Blue escapes before he has to crack his prime, White will be locked into a 1pt holding game. Blue should win a gammon in a bit more that 15% of those games. In the games I am splitting down the middle, let’s assume the gammons also split down the middle. If we award Blue another game and a half as an adjustment for gammons, then the numbers are Blue 25.5 wins; White 10.5.
With high volatility and many market losers, I think Blue should double. Based on my very rough estimates, White can eke out a take.
Mike
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