[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

Advanced Backgammon #155

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Wednesday, 11 June 2014, at 9:57 p.m.

In Response To: Advanced Backgammon #155 (Igor)

Suppose Blue does not cube. Then, 30% of the time, he will lose his market when he rolls a 6. 14% of the time Blue will roll 4 pips or less, and be able to hold his prime. The other 56%, however, will have him cracking.

Once Blue cracks, it is hard to see a definitive advantage for either side. Rolling a 6 is a mixed blessing, for the player who gets one first will be inevitably attacked.

To make a rough estimate, letís award 11 games to Blue when he rolls a 6. Letís also give Blue 3 of the 5 games where he rolls 4 pips or less. Finally, letís split the other 20 games down the middle. By these numbers, Blue wins 24 games; White wins 12.

Gammons will complicate the issue. When Blue escapes before he has to crack his prime, White will be locked into a 1pt holding game. Blue should win a gammon in a bit more that 15% of those games. In the games I am splitting down the middle, letís assume the gammons also split down the middle. If we award Blue another game and a half as an adjustment for gammons, then the numbers are Blue 25.5 wins; White 10.5.

With high volatility and many market losers, I think Blue should double. Based on my very rough estimates, White can eke out a take.

Mike

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response

Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:

 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.