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London Open Professionals Match Analysis

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Tuesday, 17 June 2014, at 3:55 a.m.

In Response To: London Open Professionals Match Analysis (John O'Hagan)

JOH wrote:

Second, if the leader's top end of the doubling window was 81%(i.e. 2a-14a), it would seldom be correct to double a position with this much play left in it with 75% winning chances. The leader at 2a needs to be real close to the top end of the window before doubling unless the volatility is through the roof.

Something like this, I guess?





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 64
14 point match
pip: 65
score: 12

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-BBCBBB--aB--------bcbbbc-:0:0:1:00:12:0:0:14:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.96% (G:0.74% B:0.01%) 75.13% (G:0.41% B:0.01%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.04% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 24.87% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.509 +1.255
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0.582 (-0.030)±0.005 (+0.578..+0.587)
Double/Take:+0.613±0.003 (+0.610..+0.615)
Double/Pass:+1.000 (+0.387)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 14.9 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

BTW, Raj says his 2.98 pr is just "fairly acceptable" to him?

You know how those Brits are with their understatements...

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