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BGonline.org Forums
Advanced Backgammon #207
Posted By: Michael Sullivan In Response To: Advanced Backgammon #207 (Igor)
Date: Thursday, 26 June 2014, at 2:25 p.m.
So, the first thing I wondered looking at this position is whether there is a reverse jacoby effect that might make you hold the cube. Normally you turn the cube to activate gammons, here, while blue is a favorite to win, some of white's joker sequences lead to gammons, and white is probalby winning as many gammons as blue, maybe even more.
So I began to wonder if this is a cube at say -15, -15, but a hold at money, which is the opposite of the affect you normally see from the jacoby rule. With the idea that in white's good sequences, you limit their cube efficiency by forcing them to cube early to activate gammons, or cube you out when they become too good.
That said, I doubt this qualifies as a Janowski paradox position. Whatever the effect may be from activating white's gammons it's probably not big enough to overcome the value of giving away the cube.
I want to hold and seems like an easy take, but I definitely can't see a beaver, blue's structure is too much better. I would guess that a beaver is a *much* bigger error than whatever is the wrong decision for blue here, maybe as big as the error from dropping.
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