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Bearing In Lesson--eye opener for most

Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Friday, 27 June 2014, at 5:49 a.m.

In Response To: Bearing In Lesson--eye opener for most (Timothy Chow)

Thanks for the Hiawatha link. I did not reread the poem today, but I remember chuckling more than a little when I read it earlier. I recommend it to those who have not seen it before.

I don't know about statistics in general, but when it comes to XG rollouts and XGR++ evals, my anecdotal conclusion is the one I stated. An XGR++ eval and a 1k rollout are perhaps equally good at finding the best play. XGR++ is decidedly better at estimating the margins between plays. In the overwhelming majority of cases, when I extend a 1k rollout, I find that it tends to approach the XGR++ margins rather than diverge away from them.

This admittedly unscientific conclusion is based on my experience with thousands of rollouts over a span of more than four years now. And, yes, since the bots beat the pants off me (and every other human I know of), I accept the results of a long rollout made with strong settings as "gospel," i.e., as the best information available about a given position. When I get a better bot or a better source of information, I will happily discard the old gospel in favor of the new.

Apostasy, indeed!

Mike

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