[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums

OLM 20140707B The Dilly Builders

Posted By: Wolfgang
Date: Monday, 7 July 2014, at 10:19 p.m.

In Response To: OLM 20140707B The Dilly Builders (Keene)

According to PRAT by Lamford, we presumably have 1/3: Position=0.5; Race=0; Threats=0.5. But I suspect that PRAT is frequently quite vague.
I really recommend the article written by Mochy(*). It covers 6 reference positions for 6 different types of games at different match scores. I learned these positions by heart and made a lot of rollouts for different scores. Even beyond 5 point match scores. One of these types of position is called "High Anchor" and looks like that:

is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 144
11 point match
pip: 127
score: 0

is Player 1
XGID=---Bb-C-CB-BcC-a-c-ca-b---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:11:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take
Player Winning Chances: 72,25% (G:2,92% B:0,13%) 72,42% (G:2,80% B:0,14%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 27,75% (G:1,91% B:0,08%) 27,58% (G:1,86% B:0,07%)
Cubeless Equities +0,456 +0,926
Cubeful Equities
No double:+0,776±0,009 (+0,767..+0,785)
Double/Take:+0,763 (-0,013)±0,010 (+0,752..+0,773)
Double/Pass:+1,000 (+0,224)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 5,3%
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32939388
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:97,3%
Take Decision confidence:100,0%
Duration: 17 minutes 00 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

White´s backcheckers have successfully escaped. With regard to the race, White is 17 pips ahead. PRAT=2: Position=1; Race=1; Threats=0. And it is still a marginal NoDouble at 11a11a.
For this reason, I voted for NoDouble in the OLM, since we have some serious problems to solve. In particular, ecaping with our backcheckers. Presently, we have a mutual high anchor game in the OLM.

(*)"When to use doubling cube in five point match", Mochy

Messages In This Thread

 

Post Response

Your Name:
Your E-Mail Address:
Subject:
Message:

If necessary, enter your password below:

Password:

 

 

[ View Thread ] [ Post Response ] [ Return to Index ] [ Read Prev Msg ] [ Read Next Msg ]

BGonline.org Forums is maintained by Stick with WebBBS 5.12.