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BGonline.org Forums
OLM 20140707B The Dilly Builders
Posted By: Wolfgang In Response To: OLM 20140707B The Dilly Builders (Keene)
Date: Monday, 7 July 2014, at 10:19 p.m.
According to PRAT by Lamford, we presumably have 1/3: Position=0.5; Race=0; Threats=0.5. But I suspect that PRAT is frequently quite vague.
I really recommend the article written by Mochy(*). It covers 6 reference positions for 6 different types of games at different match scores. I learned these positions by heart and made a lot of rollouts for different scores. Even beyond 5 point match scores. One of these types of position is called "High Anchor" and looks like that:
is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 14411 point match pip: 127
score: 0
is Player 1
XGID=---Bb-C-CB-BcC-a-c-ca-b---:0:0:1:00:0:0:0:11:10 on roll, cube action?
Analyzed in Rollout No double Double/Take Player Winning Chances: 72,25% (G:2,92% B:0,13%) 72,42% (G:2,80% B:0,14%) Opponent Winning Chances: 27,75% (G:1,91% B:0,08%) 27,58% (G:1,86% B:0,07%) Cubeless Equities +0,456 +0,926 Cubeful Equities No double: +0,776 ±0,009 (+0,767..+0,785) Double/Take: +0,763 (-0,013) ±0,010 (+0,752..+0,773) Double/Pass: +1,000 (+0,224) Best Cube action: No double / Take Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 5,3% Rollout details 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 32939388
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG RollerDouble Decision confidence: 97,3% Take Decision confidence: 100,0% Duration: 17 minutes 00 second eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2
White´s backcheckers have successfully escaped. With regard to the race, White is 17 pips ahead. PRAT=2: Position=1; Race=1; Threats=0. And it is still a marginal NoDouble at 11a11a.
For this reason, I voted for NoDouble in the OLM, since we have some serious problems to solve. In particular, ecaping with our backcheckers. Presently, we have a mutual high anchor game in the OLM.(*)"When to use doubling cube in five point match", Mochy
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