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From a Chouette in Novi - ROLLOUT

Posted By: David Presser
Date: Thursday, 10 July 2014, at 6:46 p.m.

In Response To: From a Chouette in Novi (Steve Mellen)

Making the ace pt is best. I will share my approach to this position.

We are dominating the board all over. There is no good passive play that is constructive. In addition, the distribution of opp's checkers is such that almost all rolls are good for him: 2s anchor and most non 2s make an inside pt or the bar pt. Combining all, I infer that an aggressive approach is in order. The first aggressive play that comes to mind is the switch (6/3*(2), 4/1*(2)). However, this play commits to a blitz and with 10 in the zone and the 5, 3, and 1 pts it leaves us with too much of a fragile position to commit to a blitz. After rejecting the over-aggressive play, I see the value of making the ace (although it isn't ideal) - It takes at least half of our opp's next roll; we have a 4 pt board with 10 in the zone. That means that a fan will result in a full blitz; Even if opp enters we are in control of the game. We aren't happy to see our opp anchors but we give him the option anyway with the passive or most other plays.

In conclusion, I think the core issue here is that sometimes we tend to be too much in love with our 5 prime. There is a point where you dominate the position such that you should switch to a more aggressive game plan and break the prime while risking some win%. The positions at hand serves such an example.

Btw, I noticed there was a discussion about the cube. This is only relevant after the cube has been turned. With a centered cube you want to maximize cube efficiency and the passive play has to be best here (by a lot).





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 155
Unlimited Game
Jacoby Beaver
pip: 145
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-a-aBBBBB---bCa-bc-e--A-A-:1:-1:1:33:0:0:3:0:10
Blue to play 33

1.Rollout17/1*(2) eq: +0.533
Player:
Opponent:		68.01% (G:36.21% B:1.16%)
31.99% (G:7.16% B:0.35%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.524...+0.542) - [100.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 43 seconds
2.Rollout124/15 13/10eq: +0.478 (-0.054)
Player:
Opponent:		71.32% (G:21.24% B:1.24%)
28.68% (G:6.79% B:0.32%)		Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.469...+0.488) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 12 seconds
3.Rollout213/1* eq: +0.446 (-0.087)
Player:
Opponent:		67.48% (G:29.45% B:1.24%)
32.52% (G:7.87% B:0.41%)		Conf.: ± 0.009 (+0.437...+0.455) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 06 seconds
4.Rollout26/3*(2) 4/1*(2) eq: +0.440 (-0.092)
Player:
Opponent:		64.53% (G:37.31% B:1.12%)
35.47% (G:8.81% B:0.44%)		Conf.: ± 0.010 (+0.430...+0.451) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 55 seconds
5.Rollout224/21 13/10 6/3*(2) eq: +0.439 (-0.094)
Player:
Opponent:		66.97% (G:29.07% B:2.21%)
33.03% (G:7.46% B:0.40%)		Conf.: ± 0.012 (+0.427...+0.451) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 13 seconds
6.Rollout213/10(2) 6/3*(2) eq: +0.438 (-0.095)
Player:
Opponent:		66.32% (G:30.55% B:2.44%)
33.68% (G:7.76% B:0.41%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (+0.427...+0.449) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 12 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 59465152
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

2 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 13171885
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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