I'm still not sure what the most 'pure play' is here, and XG isn't going to settle that. My own opinion is that slotting the four point while keeping the bar point is more pure than abandoning the bar point to make the four. That said, I don't think this is the sort of position where purity outweighs the usual concerns about safety, the race, etc.
My choice was to slot the four while bringing one down - this duplicates aces to hit so it is not as loose as it looks at first glance. But it's still too loose for XG.
Full rollout has 8/4 7/4 and 8/5 8/4 in a statistical tie with my play not too awful. Anything else is basically a blunder.

              
 
              
 | | White is Player 2
score: 0 pip: 134 | Unlimited Game | pip: 148 score: 0
Blue is Player 1 | |
XGID=---b-BCBD---bB--bb-bb-baB-:0:0:1:43:0:0:0:0:10 |
Blue to play 43 |
1. | Rollout1 | 8/4 7/4 | eq: -0.157 |
| Player: Opponent: | 46.68% (G:13.24% B:0.67%) 53.32% (G:18.43% B:1.16%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.172...-0.141) - [78.0%] Duration: 16 minutes 21 seconds |
|
2. | Rollout1 | 8/5 8/4 | eq: -0.165 (-0.009) |
| Player: Opponent: | 47.20% (G:13.67% B:0.76%) 52.80% (G:20.04% B:1.44%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.182...-0.149) - [22.0%] Duration: 17 minutes 02 seconds |
|
3. | Rollout1 | 13/10 8/4 | eq: -0.198 (-0.042) |
| Player: Opponent: | 46.49% (G:12.68% B:0.70%) 53.51% (G:20.89% B:2.22%) | Conf.: ± 0.017 (-0.215...-0.181) - [0.0%] Duration: 15 minutes 22 seconds |
|
4. | Rollout2 | 13/10 13/9 | eq: -0.223 (-0.066) |
| Player: Opponent: | 45.53% (G:12.03% B:0.60%) 54.47% (G:20.05% B:1.72%) | Conf.: ± 0.016 (-0.239...-0.207) - [0.0%] Duration: 14 minutes 29 seconds |
|
5. | Rollout3 | 24/21 8/4 | eq: -0.278 (-0.121) |
| Player: Opponent: | 45.79% (G:13.14% B:0.80%) 54.21% (G:27.89% B:1.50%) | Conf.: ± 0.019 (-0.297...-0.259) - [0.0%] Duration: 10 minutes 12 seconds |
|
6. | Rollout4 | 8/5 6/2 | eq: -0.298 (-0.142) |
| Player: Opponent: | 43.44% (G:11.23% B:0.48%) 56.56% (G:20.01% B:1.25%) | Conf.: ± 0.020 (-0.318...-0.278) - [0.0%] Duration: 10 minutes 10 seconds |
|
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1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 1122 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
3 774 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
4 773 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
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eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10