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Losing your market at 2a2a

Posted By: Rick Janowski
Date: Tuesday, 16 September 2014, at 3:00 a.m.

In Response To: Losing your market at 2a2a (Timothy Chow)

One good reason to be happy about not doubling is where subsequently game winning chances reduce to the extent that you are pleased to be able to concede only a single point by dropping the cube. This seems to be a more likely reason than those from scenarios where the position suddenly becomes to good.

Such a situation occurs where the game winning chances fall below about 40%, where doubling would nullify the damage limitation insurance policy.

Incidentally, I am convinced that the anomalies from the evaluations and rollouts resulting from the -2-2 position that Dmitri posted relate to an inconsistency in the methodology used by XG in evaluating game winning chances and associated normal equities. For no-double equities, evaluations incorporate opening book rollouts, whereas for double-take equities they do not.

I checked this possibility out by carrying out the full range of evaluations but setting XG to ignore the opening book to create consistency. For the n-ply evaluations (from 1-ply to 7-ply) the maximum difference in normalised equity is only 0.0001! For XGR+ and XGR++ the difference is a little higher, but still less than 0.0010. I think the greater variance probably relates to the use of mini-rollouts for these evaluation types.

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