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Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 27 December 2014, at 10:37 p.m.
In Response To: More fun with "Guess what XG 3ply plays" (Timothy Chow)
XG 3ply plays 24/22 7/3 5/3, as you can verify by entering this position into XG and clicking on the 3ply evaluation button.
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 129Unlimited Game pip: 152
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=BBBBBAcdcBeAA:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10 Blue to play 22
1. 3ply 24/22 7/3 5/3 eq: 0.460
Player:
Opponent:35.16% (G:4.28% B:0.12%)
64.84% (G:5.80% B:0.14%)2. 3ply 7/3(2) eq: 0.461 (0.001)
Player:
Opponent:36.20% (G:6.42% B:0.19%)
63.80% (G:10.18% B:0.32%)3. 3ply 22/20 10/8 7/3 eq: 0.479 (0.019)
Player:
Opponent:36.01% (G:5.95% B:0.16%)
63.99% (G:10.32% B:0.31%)4. 3ply 22/20 10/4 eq: 0.494 (0.034)
Player:
Opponent:35.74% (G:5.63% B:0.15%)
64.26% (G:10.16% B:0.30%)5. 2ply 24/22 8/6 7/3 eq: 0.479 (0.018)
Player:
Opponent:34.23% (G:4.82% B:0.05%)
65.77% (G:5.97% B:0.11%)6. 2ply 24/22 7/5 7/3 eq: 0.479 (0.019)
Player:
Opponent:34.30% (G:4.81% B:0.05%)
65.70% (G:6.20% B:0.11%)7. 2ply 24/22 10/8 7/3 eq: 0.482 (0.022)
Player:
Opponent:34.25% (G:4.78% B:0.05%)
65.75% (G:6.23% B:0.11%)8. 2ply 22/20 7/5 7/3 eq: 0.487 (0.026)
Player:
Opponent:35.17% (G:6.10% B:0.05%)
64.83% (G:9.97% B:0.27%)9. 1ply 22/20 8/6 8/4 eq: 0.462 (0.002)
Player:
Opponent:35.60% (G:6.24% B:0.20%)
64.40% (G:9.31% B:0.26%)10. 1ply 10/6 7/3 eq: 0.466 (0.006)
Player:
Opponent:35.84% (G:6.68% B:0.21%)
64.16% (G:10.56% B:0.37%)11. 1ply 22/20 10/6 7/5 eq: 0.469 (0.009)
Player:
Opponent:35.58% (G:6.16% B:0.18%)
64.42% (G:9.75% B:0.25%)12. 1ply 10/2 eq: 0.471 (0.011)
Player:
Opponent:35.62% (G:6.41% B:0.20%)
64.38% (G:10.19% B:0.33%)13. 1ply 22/20 10/6 8/6 eq: 0.473 (0.013)
Player:
Opponent:35.36% (G:6.16% B:0.19%)
64.64% (G:9.55% B:0.25%)14. 1ply 22/18 10/6 eq: 0.473 (0.013)
Player:
Opponent:34.77% (G:4.45% B:0.13%)
65.23% (G:6.49% B:0.16%)15. 1ply 24/22 10/6 7/5 eq: 0.476 (0.016)
Player:
Opponent:34.69% (G:3.86% B:0.10%)
65.31% (G:5.99% B:0.10%)16. 1ply 22/18 7/3 eq: 0.478 (0.017)
Player:
Opponent:34.94% (G:4.82% B:0.16%)
65.06% (G:7.50% B:0.29%)eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
If we force an XG 3ply evaluation of all these candidates then a more sensible play floats to the top. (I played 7/3(2) OTB by the way.)
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 129Unlimited Game pip: 152
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=BBBBBAcdcBeAA:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10 Blue to play 22
1. 3ply 22/18 7/3 eq: 0.435
Player:
Opponent:36.42% (G:5.27% B:0.14%)
63.58% (G:7.67% B:0.24%)2. 3ply 22/18 10/6 eq: 0.436 (0.001)
Player:
Opponent:36.50% (G:4.99% B:0.12%)
63.50% (G:7.55% B:0.19%)3. 3ply 24/22 8/6 7/3 eq: 0.457 (0.021)
Player:
Opponent:35.21% (G:4.42% B:0.12%)
64.79% (G:5.81% B:0.14%)4. 3ply 24/22 7/3 5/3 eq: 0.460 (0.025)
Player:
Opponent:35.16% (G:4.28% B:0.12%)
64.84% (G:5.80% B:0.14%)5. 3ply 7/3(2) eq: 0.461 (0.026)
Player:
Opponent:36.20% (G:6.42% B:0.19%)
63.80% (G:10.18% B:0.32%)eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10
Here is a rollout of the top three plays, my play, and XG 3ply's play.
White is Player 2
score: 0
pip: 129Unlimited Game pip: 152
score: 0
Blue is Player 1XGID=BBBBBAcdcBeAA:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10 Blue to play 22
1. Rollout^{1} 22/18 7/3 eq: 0.421
Player:
Opponent:38.40% (G:7.07% B:0.14%)
61.60% (G:8.13% B:0.21%)Conf.: ± 0.011 (0.432...0.410)  [93.8%]
Duration: 20 minutes 30 seconds2. Rollout^{1} 22/18 10/6 eq: 0.434 (0.012)
Player:
Opponent:38.25% (G:6.82% B:0.14%)
61.75% (G:8.32% B:0.21%)Conf.: ± 0.011 (0.444...0.423)  [5.9%]
Duration: 22 minutes 42 seconds3. Rollout^{1} 22/18 8/4 eq: 0.442 (0.021)
Player:
Opponent:37.90% (G:6.64% B:0.14%)
62.10% (G:8.30% B:0.21%)Conf.: ± 0.011 (0.453...0.431)  [0.3%]
Duration: 17 minutes 34 seconds4. Rollout^{1} 7/3(2) eq: 0.486 (0.065)
Player:
Opponent:37.15% (G:7.24% B:0.16%)
62.85% (G:10.08% B:0.24%)Conf.: ± 0.011 (0.498...0.475)  [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 00 second5. Rollout^{1} 24/22 7/3 5/3 eq: 0.550 (0.129)
Player:
Opponent:34.84% (G:6.08% B:0.13%)
65.16% (G:6.62% B:0.18%)Conf.: ± 0.013 (0.563...0.537)  [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 06 seconds^{1} 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3ply, cube decisions: XG RollereXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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