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Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Saturday, 27 December 2014, at 10:37 p.m.

In Response To: More fun with "Guess what XG 3-ply plays" (Timothy Chow)

XG 3-ply plays 24/22 7/3 5/3, as you can verify by entering this position into XG and clicking on the 3-ply evaluation button.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 129
Unlimited Game
pip: 152
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----BBBBB-A-c---dcBe--A-A-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 22

1.3-ply24/22 7/3 5/3eq: -0.460
Player:
Opponent:		35.16% (G:4.28% B:0.12%)
64.84% (G:5.80% B:0.14%)
2.3-ply7/3(2)eq: -0.461 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:		36.20% (G:6.42% B:0.19%)
63.80% (G:10.18% B:0.32%)
3.3-ply22/20 10/8 7/3eq: -0.479 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:		36.01% (G:5.95% B:0.16%)
63.99% (G:10.32% B:0.31%)
4.3-ply22/20 10/4eq: -0.494 (-0.034)
Player:
Opponent:		35.74% (G:5.63% B:0.15%)
64.26% (G:10.16% B:0.30%)
5.2-ply24/22 8/6 7/3eq: -0.479 (-0.018)
Player:
Opponent:		34.23% (G:4.82% B:0.05%)
65.77% (G:5.97% B:0.11%)
6.2-ply24/22 7/5 7/3eq: -0.479 (-0.019)
Player:
Opponent:		34.30% (G:4.81% B:0.05%)
65.70% (G:6.20% B:0.11%)
7.2-ply24/22 10/8 7/3eq: -0.482 (-0.022)
Player:
Opponent:		34.25% (G:4.78% B:0.05%)
65.75% (G:6.23% B:0.11%)
8.2-ply22/20 7/5 7/3eq: -0.487 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:		35.17% (G:6.10% B:0.05%)
64.83% (G:9.97% B:0.27%)
9.1-ply22/20 8/6 8/4eq: -0.462 (-0.002)
Player:
Opponent:		35.60% (G:6.24% B:0.20%)
64.40% (G:9.31% B:0.26%)
10.1-ply10/6 7/3eq: -0.466 (-0.006)
Player:
Opponent:		35.84% (G:6.68% B:0.21%)
64.16% (G:10.56% B:0.37%)
11.1-ply22/20 10/6 7/5eq: -0.469 (-0.009)
Player:
Opponent:		35.58% (G:6.16% B:0.18%)
64.42% (G:9.75% B:0.25%)
12.1-ply10/2eq: -0.471 (-0.011)
Player:
Opponent:		35.62% (G:6.41% B:0.20%)
64.38% (G:10.19% B:0.33%)
13.1-ply22/20 10/6 8/6eq: -0.473 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:		35.36% (G:6.16% B:0.19%)
64.64% (G:9.55% B:0.25%)
14.1-ply22/18 10/6eq: -0.473 (-0.013)
Player:
Opponent:		34.77% (G:4.45% B:0.13%)
65.23% (G:6.49% B:0.16%)
15.1-ply24/22 10/6 7/5eq: -0.476 (-0.016)
Player:
Opponent:		34.69% (G:3.86% B:0.10%)
65.31% (G:5.99% B:0.10%)
16.1-ply22/18 7/3eq: -0.478 (-0.017)
Player:
Opponent:		34.94% (G:4.82% B:0.16%)
65.06% (G:7.50% B:0.29%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

If we force an XG 3-ply evaluation of all these candidates then a more sensible play floats to the top. (I played 7/3(2) OTB by the way.)





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 129
Unlimited Game
pip: 152
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----BBBBB-A-c---dcBe--A-A-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 22

1.3-ply22/18 7/3eq: -0.435
Player:
Opponent:		36.42% (G:5.27% B:0.14%)
63.58% (G:7.67% B:0.24%)
2.3-ply22/18 10/6eq: -0.436 (-0.001)
Player:
Opponent:		36.50% (G:4.99% B:0.12%)
63.50% (G:7.55% B:0.19%)
3.3-ply24/22 8/6 7/3eq: -0.457 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:		35.21% (G:4.42% B:0.12%)
64.79% (G:5.81% B:0.14%)
4.3-ply24/22 7/3 5/3eq: -0.460 (-0.025)
Player:
Opponent:		35.16% (G:4.28% B:0.12%)
64.84% (G:5.80% B:0.14%)
5.3-ply7/3(2)eq: -0.461 (-0.026)
Player:
Opponent:		36.20% (G:6.42% B:0.19%)
63.80% (G:10.18% B:0.32%)

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

Here is a rollout of the top three plays, my play, and XG 3-ply's play.





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 129
Unlimited Game
pip: 152
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=----BBBBB-A-c---dcBe--A-A-:0:0:1:22:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 22

1.Rollout122/18 7/3eq: -0.421
Player:
Opponent:		38.40% (G:7.07% B:0.14%)
61.60% (G:8.13% B:0.21%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.432...-0.410) - [93.8%]
Duration: 20 minutes 30 seconds
2.Rollout122/18 10/6eq: -0.434 (-0.012)
Player:
Opponent:		38.25% (G:6.82% B:0.14%)
61.75% (G:8.32% B:0.21%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.444...-0.423) - [5.9%]
Duration: 22 minutes 42 seconds
3.Rollout122/18 8/4eq: -0.442 (-0.021)
Player:
Opponent:		37.90% (G:6.64% B:0.14%)
62.10% (G:8.30% B:0.21%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.453...-0.431) - [0.3%]
Duration: 17 minutes 34 seconds
4.Rollout17/3(2)eq: -0.486 (-0.065)
Player:
Opponent:		37.15% (G:7.24% B:0.16%)
62.85% (G:10.08% B:0.24%)		Conf.: ± 0.011 (-0.498...-0.475) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 00 second
5.Rollout124/22 7/3 5/3eq: -0.550 (-0.129)
Player:
Opponent:		34.84% (G:6.08% B:0.13%)
65.16% (G:6.62% B:0.18%)		Conf.: ± 0.013 (-0.563...-0.537) - [0.0%]
Duration: 23 minutes 06 seconds
1 1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 271828
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10

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