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Prime or Attack? What's Best? **ROLLOUT**

Posted By: Michael Depreli
Date: Sunday, 11 January 2015, at 5:32 p.m.

In Response To: Prime or Attack? What's Best? (Michael Depreli)

IMO difficult OTB to weigh up the pros and cons of primimg vs attacking here. Of the hitting plays, 5/4 is better. Although getting hit back on the 5 point is worse, it's compensated by a better follow up if white enters without hitting. If white fans it simply a pass for both plays.

Priming is however better than hitting. It's not the best play at DMP, that's 9/4* 5/4 but although it wins less gammons it also loses at lot less gammons which seems to bring it to the top of the pile.

TBH my knowledge isn't deep enough to work this out OTB or even now without a lot of time analyzing it, if anyone else can tell me how to do it I'm all ears.

BTW XG 3-ply normal likes 11/10 9/4* a large error.

Michael





White is Player 2

score: 0
pip: 89
7 point match
pip: 109
score: 0

Blue is Player 1
XGID=-B--aBBBCA-A-AA--bcb-bbba-:1:1:1:51:0:0:0:7:10
Blue to play 51

1.Rollout114/9 11/10eq: +0.238
Player:
Opponent:
54.86% (G:3.83% B:0.11%)
45.14% (G:12.83% B:0.15%)
Conf.: 0.012 (+0.226...+0.251) - [100.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 32 seconds
2.Rollout29/4* 5/4eq: +0.208 (-0.030)
Player:
Opponent:
55.47% (G:5.45% B:0.21%)
44.53% (G:19.12% B:0.83%)
Conf.: 0.010 (+0.198...+0.218) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 25 seconds
3.Rollout213/12 9/4* eq: +0.190 (-0.048)
Player:
Opponent:
54.26% (G:5.45% B:0.16%)
45.74% (G:18.90% B:0.59%)
Conf.: 0.009 (+0.181...+0.200) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 10 seconds
4.Rollout214/13 9/4* eq: +0.187 (-0.051)
Player:
Opponent:
52.75% (G:5.61% B:0.14%)
47.25% (G:15.72% B:0.31%)
Conf.: 0.011 (+0.176...+0.198) - [0.0%]
Duration: 4 minutes 57 seconds
5.Rollout311/10 9/4* eq: +0.176 (-0.062)
Player:
Opponent:
54.63% (G:5.82% B:0.20%)
45.37% (G:20.07% B:0.84%)
Conf.: 0.012 (+0.164...+0.189) - [0.0%]
Duration: 3 minutes 12 seconds
1 250 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
Search interval: Large

2 248 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
Search interval: Large

3 224 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves and cube decisions: 4-ply
Search interval: Large

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2

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