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OLM 20150126A The Dilly Builders  CONSULTATION
Posted By: Martin
Date: Monday, 26 January 2015, at 10:14 p.m.
In Response To: OLM 20150126A The Dilly Builders  CONSULTATION (Jason Lee)
If we drop, we are 4a6a, which is 64.3%, and if we take we have either 50 or 100%. So our takepoint is 28.6%. If we take, our gammons are worthless and opp's gammon value is 1. Therefore in order to take, we have to win 28.6% more than the gammons that we lose.
Opp's have 16 numbers that hit and cover the 3pt blot: 65, 64, 62, 52, 51, 41, 21, 22 and 11. I assume that covering the blot is more important for them than to hit the second checker, so there are no double hits. If we are closed out, opp's will win about 40% gammons. How likely is a closeout on average of these 16 rolls? If they hit the rear blot, they will be a favourite to close us out, but that is only 4 of the 16 rolls. In the other 12, we are favourite to safety the second blot. I guess we can win 4 of these 16, but we lose gammon in 3.
12 numbers hit but fail to cover the 3pt blot. If we hit it, we are favourite to win, but otherwise it looks grim for us. I guess we'll win 5 of these 12, but we lose gammon in 2.
8 numbers don't hit. I guess we can win 6 of these, and we'll lose hardly any gammons.
IF these guesses are correct, we are 1% short of a take.
Bottom line: Pass

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