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Snake eyes: Too many !@#$ choices

Posted By: HOMINID
Date: Monday, 16 February 2015, at 11:11 a.m.

In Response To: Snake eyes: Too many !@#$ choices (Timothy Chow)

Everyone within reason gets it right, of course not everyone wins the game ,this is BG. I immediately see two red flags. I don't want whites last runner to get away but at the same time blue has a problem with their runners. Can I do anything about both these problems. Yes I can 23/22 6/3*. This is a knee-jerk play for me but anything else seems a little passive. I put the position to my companion. Hey hey what's going on my play doesn't even appear in the move window. I shout at the parrot chase the cat, stare at the fish, collect myself and scroll down. Glory be there it is panic session averted. I give the top six plays an XG++. My play sits in the second position I will give it a roll out. I watch the numbers flicker in the rollout analysis box (sad person) and honour is restored as my play goes top. It eventually settles in the second spot with an equity loss of 0.005.

There are four perfectly acceptable rolls which lend themselves to my new interest, roll odds. A few weeks ago I messaged the XG team regarding dice distribution. They pointed out that I was taking the country route to acquire the information I wanted. At the same time I made a suggestion regarding displaying them. Maybe it was my stimulus that produced "when picking multiple candidate and asking for dice distribution there is now one window per candidate" no matter it's a gift to the lesser mortals. Within reason one expects the number of damaging rolls given to the opponent by each play to be in ascending order. In extreme cases this is indeed correct. In positions such as the one when four plays can be so close it is not necessarily so. It is interesting to fathom the reason. When one knows the answer with such data the logic can be found. By using roll odds in analysis mode in time one can bring to the table a very sound ballpark play . As I have said before there is no reason now to wonder why your play is a blunder with such data to hand its easily explained. I have fed the cat, the parrot and the fish and we are all friends again.

Messages In This Thread

• Snake eyes: Too many !@#$ choices
  Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 15 February 2015, at 8:55 p.m.
  • Snake eyes: Too many !@#$ choices
    Seth -- Sunday, 15 February 2015, at 10:12 p.m.
    • Snake eyes: Too many !@#$ choices
      Fatboy -- Monday, 16 February 2015, at 12:17 a.m.
  • Snake eyes: Too many !@#$ choices
    johnk -- Sunday, 15 February 2015, at 10:46 p.m.
    • Snake eyes: Too many !@#$ choices
      neilkaz -- Monday, 16 February 2015, at 4:05 a.m.
  • Snake eyes: Too many !@#$ choices
    Casper Van der Tak -- Monday, 16 February 2015, at 12:34 a.m.
  • Snake eyes: Too many !@#$ choices
    garyo -- Monday, 16 February 2015, at 12:46 a.m.
    • Snake eyes: Too many !@#$ choices
      garyo -- Monday, 16 February 2015, at 1:01 a.m.
  • Snake eyes: Too many !@#$ choices
    Taper_Mike -- Monday, 16 February 2015, at 1:11 a.m.
  • Snake eyes: Too many !@#$ choices
    HOMINID -- Monday, 16 February 2015, at 11:11 a.m.
  • Rollout and discussion
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 16 February 2015, at 7:48 p.m.
    • Rollout and discussion
      Taper_Mike -- Monday, 16 February 2015, at 11:07 p.m.
    • Rollout and discussion
      Fatboy -- Tuesday, 17 February 2015, at 4:00 a.m.