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Rollout and discussion

Posted By: Timothy Chow
Date: Monday, 16 February 2015, at 7:48 p.m.

In Response To: Snake eyes: Too many !@#$ choices (Timothy Chow)

Oddly, nobody who posted chose what I played OTB, namely 6/4(2).

There's been quite a bit of previous discussion on BGO about this sort of 6/4(2) play. A cursory search turned up this, this, this, this, this, and this, and I'm sure there are more that I've missed. Stick says he has an entire folder of such positions.

The bot play, 23/22 9/7 8/7, does three good things; it (1) cleans up a blot, (2) makes a four-prime, and (3) splits against White's more-prime-than-attack forward position. Still, 6/4(2) isn't that far behind, illustrating how strong such a play is in general. Note that doing only two of those three good things with 9/7 8/7 6/5 is in the same ballpark as 6/4(2).

The other leading candidate, 23/22 6/3*, follows a different strategy, and is probably the DMP play. In light of the recent discussion on "creativity," I would regard the choice between 23/22 6/3* and 23/22 9/7 8/7 as an opportunity for creativity, or (if you prefer) "adjusting for the opponent".

There are a few other plausible candidate moves, but I didn't roll them out; sorry. I'm pretty sure that these four roll out on top.

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 150 Unlimited Game pip: 163 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=---a-BD-CA--eBa--c-cb--BA-:0:0:1:11:0:0:0:0:10
Blue to play 11

1.	Rollout1	23/22 9/7 8/7	eq: -0.369
	Player: Opponent: 40.02% (G:11.41% B:0.45%) 59.98% (G:14.57% B:0.84%) Conf.: ± 0.007 (-0.376...-0.361) - [99.4%] Duration: 1 hour 44 minutes
2.	Rollout1	23/22 6/3*	eq: -0.383 (-0.014)
	Player: Opponent: 41.25% (G:12.15% B:0.43%) 58.75% (G:18.51% B:1.39%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.391...-0.374) - [0.6%] Duration: 1 hour 56 minutes
3.	Rollout1	6/4(2)	eq: -0.406 (-0.037)
	Player: Opponent: 39.69% (G:11.94% B:0.39%) 60.31% (G:16.56% B:0.98%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.413...-0.398) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 45 minutes
4.	Rollout1	9/7 8/7 6/5	eq: -0.412 (-0.044)
	Player: Opponent: 39.06% (G:11.69% B:0.39%) 60.94% (G:15.83% B:0.94%) Conf.: ± 0.008 (-0.420...-0.404) - [0.0%] Duration: 1 hour 36 minutes
1 5184 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 271828 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.208.pre-release

Messages In This Thread

• Snake eyes: Too many !@#$ choices
  Timothy Chow -- Sunday, 15 February 2015, at 8:55 p.m.
  • Snake eyes: Too many !@#$ choices
    Seth -- Sunday, 15 February 2015, at 10:12 p.m.
    • Snake eyes: Too many !@#$ choices
      Fatboy -- Monday, 16 February 2015, at 12:17 a.m.
  • Snake eyes: Too many !@#$ choices
    johnk -- Sunday, 15 February 2015, at 10:46 p.m.
    • Snake eyes: Too many !@#$ choices
      neilkaz -- Monday, 16 February 2015, at 4:05 a.m.
  • Snake eyes: Too many !@#$ choices
    Casper Van der Tak -- Monday, 16 February 2015, at 12:34 a.m.
  • Snake eyes: Too many !@#$ choices
    garyo -- Monday, 16 February 2015, at 12:46 a.m.
    • Snake eyes: Too many !@#$ choices
      garyo -- Monday, 16 February 2015, at 1:01 a.m.
  • Snake eyes: Too many !@#$ choices
    Taper_Mike -- Monday, 16 February 2015, at 1:11 a.m.
  • Snake eyes: Too many !@#$ choices
    HOMINID -- Monday, 16 February 2015, at 11:11 a.m.
  • Rollout and discussion
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 16 February 2015, at 7:48 p.m.
    • Rollout and discussion
      Taper_Mike -- Monday, 16 February 2015, at 11:07 p.m.
    • Rollout and discussion
      Fatboy -- Tuesday, 17 February 2015, at 4:00 a.m.