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Crunch!

Posted By: mick dyett
Date: Wednesday, 18 February 2015, at 3:44 a.m.

In Response To: Crunch! (David Levy)

i only had time to check out two plays, the non blotting 13-8 7-6 and the blot leaving play 13-12 7-2. With white having such a large racing lead I wanted to see how whites blot on his 5 point affected the outcome of the position after all possible plays from both positions(assuming i got the plays correct). Without that blot on whites 5 point its easy to see that not leaving a shot has to be the plan. Of whites 6 doubles, 3-3 works very nicely for blue(after 13-12) giving him life after death with 7 return shots from the bar, the safe play drops the cube after his next roll.With whites hit and lift plays(3-1 3-2 3-4) after 13-12 blue still gets 12 shots from the bar and just drops if he dances,his non hitting 5s and 6s shouldn't be cubed. The 13-12 play also gives greater shot equity for blue on whites 6-1 6-2 6-3 6-4 5-1 5-2 5-3 5-4(which also adds strength to the cube when the triple shots turn up) which is what this position seems to be looking for.The other rolls i didn't mention don't seem to swing enough equity either way to let the blot play be overlooked. i could be wrong...but it seems looking at the numbers tell the story.

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