Thanks, David, for posting such an interesting position. Kudos to Tim and Mick for sussing out 7/2. The reasons they gave are plausible, suggesting, at the least, that earning a triple shot by playing 7/2 needs to be on all lists of candidate plays.
Mike
          
 
        
 | | White is Player 2
score: 5
pip: 64 | | 7 point match | pip: 105
score: 4
Blue is Player 1 |
|
| XGID=--BABBBA-b-B-C------abccd-:0:0:1:51:4:5:0:7:10 |
| Blue to play 51 |
| 1. | Rollout1 | 13/8 7/6 | eq: -0.148 |
| Player:
Opponent: | 39.63% (G:3.38% B:0.12%)
60.37% (G:1.94% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.149...-0.147) - [93.6%]
Duration: 1 hour 17 minutes |
|
| 2. | Rollout1 | 13/12 7/2 | eq: -0.149 (-0.001) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.56% (G:5.71% B:0.24%)
58.44% (G:8.44% B:0.05%) | Conf.: ± 0.001 (-0.150...-0.148) - [6.4%]
Duration: 1 hour 18 minutes |
|
| 3. | Rollout2 | 13/8 4/3 | eq: -0.167 (-0.019) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 39.36% (G:3.38% B:0.13%)
60.64% (G:2.37% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.169...-0.165) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 11 seconds |
|
| 4. | Rollout2 | 13/12 11/6 | eq: -0.167 (-0.020) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 41.40% (G:9.18% B:0.55%)
58.60% (G:14.61% B:0.18%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.170...-0.165) - [0.0%]
Duration: 21 minutes 16 seconds |
|
| 5. | Rollout2 | 13/7 | eq: -0.172 (-0.024) |
| Player:
Opponent: | 38.81% (G:3.53% B:0.12%)
61.19% (G:2.25% B:0.01%) | Conf.: ± 0.002 (-0.174...-0.170) - [0.0%]
Duration: 19 minutes 56 seconds |
|
| |
1 62208 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91329371
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
2 15552 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Dice Seed: 91329371
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
|
Rollout by Taper_Mike
2015-Feb-19
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10.199.2658
Flashcard PositionID 000954.-3-2.xgp |
eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.10, MET: Kazaross XG2