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RO

Posted By: John O'Hagan
Date: Saturday, 21 February 2015, at 3:52 p.m.

In Response To: Cube action ATS? (John O'Hagan)

R/T is correct. Recubing slightly increases your MWC, as Neil explained. You win 23 out of 36 matches right away if you recube and half of the remaining 13 for 29.5 wins out of 36.

If no redouble, you win 23 plus ~ 30% of the other 13 for about 27 games won which give you a 2a-8a lead with about 87% MWC. 13% of 27 is 2.7 + .27(3) which is ~3.5. 27 - 3.5 = 23.5 matches won. The remaining 9 losses leave you ahead 4a-6a with about 64% MWC. 64% of 9 is < the needed 6 to bring the win total to 29.5 so redoubling is slightly correct against an even opponent.

is Player 2

score: 1
pip: 5
9 point match
pip: 6
score: 5

is Player 1
XGID=-A---A----------------aa--:1:1:1:00:5:1:0:9:10
on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout No redouble Redouble/Take
Player Winning Chances: 74.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 74.92% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Opponent Winning Chances: 25.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%) 25.08% (G:0.00% B:0.00%)
Cubeless Equities +0.498 +0.993
Cubeful Equities
No redouble:+0.498 (-0.020)±0.000 (+0.498..+0.498)
Redouble/Take:+0.519±0.000 (+0.519..+0.519)
Redouble/Pass:+1.000 (+0.481)
Best Cube action: Redouble / Take
Rollout details
1296 Games rolled with Variance Reduction.
Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:100.0%
Take Decision confidence:100.0%
Duration: 0.1 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.00, MET: Kazaross XG2

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