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Backgammon Position - Rollout

Posted By: Stick
Date: Wednesday, 25 February 2015, at 3:41 a.m.

In Response To: Backgammon Position - Rollout (Timothy Chow)

In response to Casper's original post here you go.

If we hit, do we have a center cube from the bar?

No.

		White is Player 1 score: 0 pip: 153 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 125 score: 0 Blue is Player 2
XGID=a-ABABC-A---ba-a-c-cCAbbA-:0:0:-1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	55.94% (G:30.69% B:2.66%)	55.81% (G:31.51% B:3.46%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	44.06% (G:16.72% B:0.99%)	44.19% (G:17.02% B:1.02%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.275	+0.571
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.215	±0.012 (+0.202..+0.227)
Double/Take:	+0.168 (-0.047)	±0.022 (+0.146..+0.189)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.785)
Best Cube action: No double / Take
Percentage of wrong pass needed to make the double decision right: 5.3%
Rollout details
2592 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 93131119 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 36 minutes 22 seconds

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.206.pre-release

Assuming that the opponent does not double and dances, do we have a double?

Question seems to be does the opponent have a take meaning the following question seems obvious.

Assuming that the opponent doubles and then dances after our take, do we have a redouble?

		White is Player 2 score: 0 pip: 125 Unlimited Game Jacoby Beaver pip: 153 score: 0 Blue is Player 1
XGID=a-ABABC-A---ba-a-c-cCAbbA-:0:0:1:00:0:0:3:0:10
Blue on roll, cube action?

Analyzed in Rollout	No double	Double/Take
Player Winning Chances:	65.17% (G:35.32% B:2.14%)	66.40% (G:37.18% B:2.30%)
Opponent Winning Chances:	34.83% (G:11.04% B:0.62%)	33.60% (G:11.36% B:0.61%)
Cubeless Equities	+0.562	+1.206
Cubeful Equities
No double:	+0.591 (-0.356)	±0.013 (+0.578..+0.604)
Double/Take:	+0.947	±0.025 (+0.922..+0.972)
Double/Pass:	+1.000 (+0.053)
Best Cube action: Double / Take
Rollout details
972 Games rolled with Variance Reduction. Dice Seed: 59526471 Moves: 3-ply, cube decisions: XG Roller
Double Decision confidence:		100.0%
Take Decision confidence:		100.0%
Duration: 9 minutes 00 second

eXtreme Gammon Version: 2.19.206.pre-release

Messages In This Thread

• Backgammon Position
  Stick -- Sunday, 22 February 2015, at 12:27 p.m.
  • Backgammon Position
    Casper Van der Tak -- Sunday, 22 February 2015, at 1:31 p.m.
  • Backgammon Position
    garyo -- Sunday, 22 February 2015, at 2:35 p.m.
  • Backgammon Position
    mick dyett -- Monday, 23 February 2015, at 7:49 a.m.
    • Backgammon Position
      Snua -- Monday, 23 February 2015, at 11:37 a.m.
  • Backgammon Position
    Casper Van der Tak -- Monday, 23 February 2015, at 8:50 a.m.
    • Backgammon Position
      Timothy Chow -- Monday, 23 February 2015, at 5:11 p.m.
  • Backgammon Position
    Keene -- Monday, 23 February 2015, at 6:18 p.m.
  • Backgammon Position
    johnk -- Monday, 23 February 2015, at 7:54 p.m.
  • Backgammon Position
    ben -- Tuesday, 24 February 2015, at 3:31 p.m.
  • Backgammon Position - Rollout
    Stick -- Tuesday, 24 February 2015, at 4:53 p.m.
    • Backgammon Position - Rollout
      Timothy Chow -- Tuesday, 24 February 2015, at 10:31 p.m.
      • Backgammon Position - Rollout
        Stick -- Wednesday, 25 February 2015, at 3:41 a.m.
        • Backgammon Position - Rollout
          Casper Van der Tak -- Wednesday, 25 February 2015, at 6:11 a.m.
  • Backgammon Position --- there's more to the story!
    Timothy Chow -- Monday, 2 March 2015, at 5:15 p.m.