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Mochy and Falafel coming to US Open

Posted By: ChanningW
Date: Saturday, 14 March 2015, at 8:49 p.m.

In Response To: Mochy and Falafel coming to US Open (Phil Simborg)

I like Phil's end of this prop.

If I had the cube every game, I'd play a little more conservative on the games where my opponent got the first roll, about like I was ahead 4 away, 7 away. My key would be to use the cube to cash out. Combine the number of early double/pass wins with the 20% of games that the better player loses when he has to play d/p games to the end (-the extra gammons) and you have a big enough edge to sit on the cube in volatile positions. IMO, the better player will have to be extremely disciplined not get into a situation where he or she isn't taking just for the action. If Phil loses, he'll lose by a relatively small margin, whereas, if he wins, he has a chance to win a lot of points. Nevertheless, this dynamic may not show itself during the 1st 30 games. If the game goes as lopsided as I think it might, you might consider a second session where Mochy gets the first roll.

My PR is probably around an 8. If anyone wants to try this out on GG, I'd love to try to take Phil's end of it.

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