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2a2a Very late double
Posted By: roadkillbooks
Date: Friday, 20 March 2015, at 7:30 p.m.
In Response To: 2a2a Very late double (Trunky)
5/36 we win this roll with 22 or higher....When we win we wished we had doubled(180)
10/36 we roll a single 1...We get will get doubled out. (360)
21/36 we rip two... Then white can not double... (756)
5/36 times white will win rolling double 2 or more.. 31/36 times.. blue can throw down a clear double.. white will have a pass but since this is a money take maybe white will botch this up.
So by not doubling this roll we will win 180 games by tolling 22 or higher plus the 651 games (31x21) we rip two and blue doesnt roll doubles so 651 + 180 =831
We lose 360 games we roll a single one, plus 105 game we rip two and white then rolls 22 or higher so 465 games..
Sorry for the convaluted rambling but we will 831 times and lose 465 by not doubling.. 64.1% of the time we will be 1 away 2 away.
 If we double we will win 180 games from our immediate doubles. 5/36
of the 10/36 that we rolled a single 1 we can no longer be doubled out and we will win about 12% of those games about 43
Of the 21/36 that we ripped two we still lose the 105 games blue rolls doubles (105) but then we also lose the 10/36 we roll a subsequent single one .. that is a whooping 210 games.
So we will win total : 180 + 43 +441= 664 White will win.. 317 + 105 + 210= 632
We win about 167 more games out of 1296 or almost 13% more games by not doubling...
of course we still have to win again to take the match.. but so would white.
roberto

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