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2a-2a Very late double

Posted By: Dmitriy Obukhov
Date: Friday, 20 March 2015, at 8:50 p.m.

In Response To: 2a-2a Very late double (Trunky)

4 on the deuce vs. 4 on the ace is a ND/Beaver for money, winning a hair more than, 52 percent cubeless. This position is only slightly better for Blue. Without doing math, I would guesstimate he wins 53-54 percent cubeless. This is how often Blue wins the match if he doubles now.

If he doesn't double and rolls 1 of 5 doubles, he goes to 1aC-2a, or 67%. On 21 numbers when he bears off two, White will double herself. In these games Blue wwins slightly more than 26*21/1296 -- call it 63%. 10 remaining aces takes him to 33%. 67*5/36+ 63*21/36+ 32*10/36=55%. Blue shouldn't double.

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