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OLM 20150403A The Prime Factors
Posted By: Taper_Mike
Date: Saturday, 4 April 2015, at 3:29 a.m.
In Response To: OLM 20150403A The Prime Factors (Jason Lee)
All candidates start with POH. The only question is how to play the final two 4s.
Adding a fourth point to our board makes a huge difference as far as dancing is concerned, 16 fans compares to only 9. Making the 1pt, however, might backfire. If the Dillies enter, that play would leave us with two semidead checkers.
Making the 3pt is probably a better way to make a fourpoint board. It would leave blots on the 7pt, 8pt, 15pt, and 22pt. From the bar, the Dillies could hit with 12 rolls: (61, 51, 31) or (62, 52, 32). If we were not hit, we could make the 7pt or 2pt with 27 rolls: 63, 53, 43, 33, 64, 54, 65, 61, 51, 41, 31, 21, 11, 62, and 44. Barring those rolls, we could also make our 1pt with 65 and 22. Of the remaining 6 rolls, 66 and possibly 55 would force us to leave a shot or break our 6pt. The cleanup sure looks nice, but is 12 shots at 4 blots too many when the Dillies have a fourpoint board? Before deciding, let’s check some other candidates.
We can reduce the number blots down to two by making the 4pt “heavy.” There are two ways to do that: C. = 22/18 8/4(3) and O. = 15/11 8/4(3). Both play give us 4 builders to make either the 2pt or 1pt. The former, play C., would have the Dillies hitting with 11 rolls: (63, 62, 61) and (31, 21, 11). If we were hit, our return shots would be limited to fly shots from the bar. If the Dillies hit us with a 6, the return shots are 55, 53, and 33. If they hit with an ace, we get 53, 52 and 43.
The latter candidate, play O., should give us more returns. Before counting those, let’s count the number of shots it surrenders. Any 3, 2, or 1 enters; any 5, 3, or 2 hits. The hitters, therefore, are (53, 52, 51); (33, 32, 31); and (22, 21); making 14 shots in all. When the Dillies hit inside, we get return shots with any 3. That’s nice. When they hit outside, however, we get none! I am going to reject this play. Making it would cost us 2 or 3 extra shots, plus the chance that we will not get any returns.
Another play that leaves only two blots is O = 15/7 8/4*(2). That play leaves us with 4 builders for the 2pt. The Dillies could hit outside with 53 or 62. They could hit inside with (33, 32, 31) or (52, 51). 53 also hits inside, but it was counted as an outside hitter. In all, 13 numbers hit. Once again, we get 11 return shots when the Dillies hit inside, and none if they hit outside.
Just to be complete, let’s go back and count the shots when we make the ace point, A = 8/4*(2), 5/1(2). The Dillies can hit on our 8pt with 62 and 53. The can hit on the 15pt with 63 and 62, but 62 was already counted. The can hit inside with 52, 33, and 32. 53 also hits inside, but it was counted as an outside hitter. That makes 11 hitting plays in all. Surprisingly, this is the same number that we would surrender if we made a fourpoint board my making our 3pt.
Naturally, my first instinct was to make two inside points. After all this counting, the only contender seems to be C. = 22/18 8/4(3). Out of respect for the fourpoint board the Dillies own, and the gammons we might lose if we leave four blots, I will choose the contender.
C. (dottedCross) = 22/18, 8/4(3)
Mike

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