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My favorite cube of Nordic Open

Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Thursday, 9 April 2015, at 8:55 p.m.

In Response To: My favorite cube of Nordic Open (tuvi)

Double is no-brainer. After next exchange of moves the market is most probably lost for either White or Black.

Take decision is the interesting one.

I'd count White's rolls in categories:
a/ cover 1 blot, lift the other
b/ cover 1 blot, leave the 2nd exposed
c/ cover both blots

I need to realize what's correct move for rolls that cover 1 blot and can lift the other or not. Seems pretty clear to lift the second blot, as Black's hits (11/36) are devastating, and dances leads to making full board, which isn't that much of a change really. It gives maybe 10% better chance of winning, plus some gammons, but not many - one guy closed out is ca. 3% if I recall correctly, so with 2 outfielders it's maybe 5-6%.

So, counting:
a/ cover 1 blot, lift the other, or rather "1 point open, no blots" because of i.e. 41: 6/5 6/2 - 21 rolls
(11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 61, 23, 25, 34, 45, 46)
b/ cover 1 blot, leave the 2nd exposed - 7 rolls
(24, 44, 55, 56, 66)
c/ cover both blots - 8 rolls
(22, 26, 33, 25, 26)

now, I estimate win/gamm chances for each group:
a/ I'd estimate 75% wins (he's got some fly shots sometimes, he can joker-run, plus few % from close-out) and few % gammons. So 3/4 out of 21 is ca. 16 games
b/ I'd assume that Black wins almost all his hits and loses almost all his dances here, which gives me ca. 25/36 = ca. 70% wins out of 7 games, which is ca. 5 games
c/ I got ca. 95% with close-out, plus 5-6% gammons, which gives, say, all 8 games claimed.

I got 29/36 games. 30/36 is 5/6 is 83,3%, minus 2,8% (1/36) = 80,5% -> 80% for simplicity.
I win tiny margin of gammons, so I assign .80 + .05 = .85 equity for myself.
Black has .20 from single wins. On hits of exposed blots he wins probably half of those as gammons. On joker-runs he wins no gammons. I'd assume ca. 1/3 of his wins are gammons.

So .20 + .07 = .27 equity for him.
.85 - .27 = .58
.58 doubled is 1.16

If opponent has recube possibilities I typically give 0.2 equity to him. Here his recube possibilities are smaller, because he wins after either hits, which are massive market-losers, or joker-runs, where he can have an efficient recube. I'd give half of the usual cube value to him, which leads me to 1.06 equity - a small pass.

Now, having written all of this, I'd probably be lost in calculations OTB for 2 times, so I'd loose patience to recalculate again and just spot that most rolls gives me 5-pt. board, which is, say 20-25% for Black, some give full board and some a 1-blot shot for Black, which, say evens out. Also I'd spot no gammons for me, and quite some gammons for Black, which, say evens-ish-out with the low recube chance. I'd recognize that this gives a somewhat close decision, which I'd probably pass OTB knowing my tendency to too loose takes.

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