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My favorite cube of Nordic Open
Posted By: Karol Szczerek
Date: Thursday, 9 April 2015, at 8:55 p.m.
In Response To: My favorite cube of Nordic Open (tuvi)
Double is nobrainer. After next exchange of moves the market is most probably lost for either White or Black.
Take decision is the interesting one.
I'd count White's rolls in categories:
a/ cover 1 blot, lift the other
b/ cover 1 blot, leave the 2nd exposed
c/ cover both blots
I need to realize what's correct move for rolls that cover 1 blot and can lift the other or not. Seems pretty clear to lift the second blot, as Black's hits (11/36) are devastating, and dances leads to making full board, which isn't that much of a change really. It gives maybe 10% better chance of winning, plus some gammons, but not many  one guy closed out is ca. 3% if I recall correctly, so with 2 outfielders it's maybe 56%.
So, counting:
a/ cover 1 blot, lift the other, or rather "1 point open, no blots" because of i.e. 41: 6/5 6/2  21 rolls
(11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 61, 23, 25, 34, 45, 46)
b/ cover 1 blot, leave the 2nd exposed  7 rolls
(24, 44, 55, 56, 66)
c/ cover both blots  8 rolls
(22, 26, 33, 25, 26)
now, I estimate win/gamm chances for each group:
a/ I'd estimate 75% wins (he's got some fly shots sometimes, he can jokerrun, plus few % from closeout) and few % gammons. So 3/4 out of 21 is ca. 16 games
b/ I'd assume that Black wins almost all his hits and loses almost all his dances here, which gives me ca. 25/36 = ca. 70% wins out of 7 games, which is ca. 5 games
c/ I got ca. 95% with closeout, plus 56% gammons, which gives, say, all 8 games claimed.
I got 29/36 games. 30/36 is 5/6 is 83,3%, minus 2,8% (1/36) = 80,5% > 80% for simplicity.
I win tiny margin of gammons, so I assign .80 + .05 = .85 equity for myself.
Black has .20 from single wins. On hits of exposed blots he wins probably half of those as gammons. On jokerruns he wins no gammons. I'd assume ca. 1/3 of his wins are gammons.
So .20 + .07 = .27 equity for him.
.85  .27 = .58
.58 doubled is 1.16
If opponent has recube possibilities I typically give 0.2 equity to him. Here his recube possibilities are smaller, because he wins after either hits, which are massive marketlosers, or jokerruns, where he can have an efficient recube. I'd give half of the usual cube value to him, which leads me to 1.06 equity  a small pass.
Now, having written all of this, I'd probably be lost in calculations OTB for 2 times, so I'd loose patience to recalculate again and just spot that most rolls gives me 5pt. board, which is, say 2025% for Black, some give full board and some a 1blot shot for Black, which, say evens out. Also I'd spot no gammons for me, and quite some gammons for Black, which, say evensishout with the low recube chance. I'd recognize that this gives a somewhat close decision, which I'd probably pass OTB knowing my tendency to too loose takes.

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